IEA《世界能源投资展望》主要观点解读与辨析  

Key points in IEA's 2014 "World Energy Investment Outlook" report and comments

作　　者：孙贤胜[1] 杜伟[1] 刘畅[1] 刘月洋[1] 陈蕊[1] 汪红[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油集团经济技术研究院

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2014年第7期13-16,共4页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：国际能源署发布的《世界能源投资展望》特别报告(2014版)认为,2035年之前油气领域仍是投资重点,其中80%的投资将用来维持既有产量水平,非常规油气投资占上游投资的1/4左右;2025年后,美国致密油产量因自然递减严重将下降,市场将更加依赖OPEC的常规石油供应;LNG项目投资成本具有不确定性,未来发展速度可能低于预期;现有炼油能力可以满足2035年前需求,因此炼油投资的半数以上将用于维护、升级现有设施,而新建投资主要发生在中东和中国;未来投资机会体现在成本高低和资源的可获得性,并将越来越受到商业模式的影响;未来能源发展呈清洁化趋势,且能效提高将日益重要;电力投资在未来能源投资中的比重将上升。中国石油集团经济技术研究院专家认为,该报告对中国未来油气、煤电投资占总投资的比重有所低估,对中国炼化的投资规模有所高估,对美国LNG出口的影响有所高估,而且报告中的450情景较难实现。According to the International Energy Agency's just released 2014 'World Energy Investment Outlook' special report, providing for the future remains the focus of oil and gas investment, but 80% of investment will be used to maintain the existing level of production, and upstream unconventional oil and gas will account for about 1/4 of investment; after 2025 tight oil production concentrated in the US will decline due to significant natural reduction, and the market will become more dependent on conventional OPEC oil for supply; LNG project investment cost is uncertain, and the future growth rate may be lower than expected; existing refinery capacitycan meet demand until 2035, with more than half of refi ning investment to be used for maintenance and upgrading existing facilities, while investment in new facilities will be primarily in the Middle East and China; investment opportunities will refl ect cost and the availability of resources, and increasingly the business model; future energy development will follow a clean-energy trend, and efficiency-improvement capability will become increasingly important; electricity's proportion of future energy investment will rise, partly because much of natural gas is used to produce electricity. In the opinion of ETRI experts, the report somewhat underestimates Chinese oil and gas, and coal-fi red electricity, investment as a proportion of total investment, somewhat overestimates the scale of Chinese investment in refining, and somewhat overestimates the impact of U.S. LNG exports, and the report's 450 Scenario is comparatively diffi cult to achieve.

关 键 词：国际能源署(EIA) 世界能源投资 展望 观点 

分 类 号：F416.2[经济管理—产业经济]