厄尔尼诺与拉尼娜事件与临夏气候相关分析  

Analysis of Correlation between Linxia Climate and El Nino,La Nina Events

作　　者：孙玉莲[1,2] 边学军 韦伯龙 马玉坤 黄成秀 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所,甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室,中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点开放实验室,甘肃兰州730020 [2]甘肃省临夏州气象局,甘肃临夏731100

出　　处：《江西农业学报》2014年第8期105-108,113,共5页Acta Agriculturae Jiangxi

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划资助(2013CB430200;2013CB430206)

摘　　要：采用统计分析与χ2检验方法，根据临夏地区1950-2012年63年的气候资料，对厄尔尼诺、拉尼娜事件与临夏地区气候进行了相关分析。结果表明：厄尔尼诺与拉尼娜事件与临夏降水、夏季平均气温（7月）、冬季（1月）平均气温之间有显著关系。厄尔尼诺与临夏降水呈负相关，有86.9%的年份符合这一规律；与冬季平均气温呈正相关，有69.6%的年份符合这一规律，与夏季平均气温呈正相关，有65.2%的年份符合这一规律，厄尔尼诺事件发生年，造成降水减少，气温年较差减小，气候有大陆性减弱趋势。拉尼娜事件与临夏降水呈正相关，有78.9%的年份符合这一规律，与冬季月平均气温呈反相关，有66.7%的年份符合这一规律，与夏季气温呈正相关，有55.6%的年份符合这一规律，拉尼娜事件发生年，临夏地区往往降水增多，气温年较差增大，气候有大陆性增强趋势。在每个年代的初期，临夏地区降水偏少几率较大，厄尔尼诺事件出现的几率较大，为56.6%。By adopting the methods of statistical analysis and Chi-square test,according to the climate data of Linxia area from 1950 to 2012,the author analyzed the correlation between Linxia climate and El Nino,La Nina events. The results showed that El Nino and La Nina events had significant correlations with the precipitation,average air temperature in summer（ July）,and aver-age air temperature in winter（ January）in Linxia. El Nino event had a negative correlation with the precipitation in Linxia,and this law was found in 86. 9% of years;it had a positive correlation with the average air temperature in winter,and this law was found in 69. 6% of years;it had a positive correlation with the average air temperature in summer,and this law was found in 65. 2% of years. In the year of El Nino event occurrence,the yearly precipitation in Linxia area decreased,the annual range of air temperature reduced,and the climate showed the trend of continental weakening. La Nina event was positively correlated to the precipitation in Linxia,and this law was consistent with the fact in 78. 9% of years;it was negatively correlated to the monthly average air tempera-ture in winter,and this law was consistent with the fact in 66. 7% of years;it was positively correlated to the air temperature in sum-mer,and this law was in accordance with the actual in 55. 6% of years. In the year of La Nina event occurrence,the yearly precipi-tation in Linxia area increased frequently,the annual range of air temperature enlarged,and the climate revealed the trend of conti-nental strengthening. At the beginning of each decade,the probability of less rainfall in Linxia area was higher,and the probability of La Nina event occurrence was also higher（56. 6%）.

关 键 词：厄尔尼诺 拉尼娜 临夏气候 相关性 

分 类 号：P461[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]