Savitzky-Golay在含冲击负荷短期负荷预测中的应用  

A Method Based on the Savitzky-Golay Filter to Deal with Short-Term Load Forecasting of Impact Load

作　　者：周佳佳[1] 史林军[1] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学能源与电气学院,南京210098

出　　处：《电测与仪表》2014年第14期125-128,共4页Electrical Measurement & Instrumentation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51177039)

摘　　要：负荷预测的精确与否直接影响智能电网规划等诸多决策问题,而在一些经济欠发达的地区,由于存在一定比例的冲击性负荷而使得负荷具有较大的波动性,对负荷预测精度存在一定的影响,而常用的负荷预测方法在处理这类负荷时均存在一定的缺陷。提出基于Savitzky-Golay滤波器的冲击性负荷短期预测方法,先对冲击负荷数据进行预处理,运用处理后的数据进行负荷组合预测,与未处理数据的预测结果进行对比,结果可见该方法可以有效地消除冲击负荷对负荷预测的影响,提高负荷预测的精度,简单易懂,使用方便,具有较好的实用价值。The accuracy of load forecast directly affects the plan of smart grid and many other problems. In some economically underdeveloped areas,due to the impact load with larger volatility,which has a certain influence on the accuracy of load forecasting, but the common load forecasting methods in dealing with this kind of load have some defects. In this paper, a short-term load forecasting method based on Savitzky-Golay filter is presented.We use the processed data to do load forecasting,and compare with the untreated data forecast results.As a result,the method based on Savitzky-Golay can effectively eliminate the influence of impact load on load forecasting and improve the accuracy of load forecasting.Also,the method is easy to understand and use, and has good practical value.

关 键 词：Savitzky-Golay 冲击性负荷 短期负荷预测 数据预处理 

分 类 号：TM933[电气工程—电力电子与电力传动]