基于系统动力学模型的区域物流与经济协调发展分析——以辽宁省为例  

Analysis on Regional Logistics and Economy Coordinated Development Based on System Dynamics Model

作　　者：曹阳[1] 王利[1,2] 蔡乐 任启龙[1] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁师范大学城市与环境学院,辽宁大连116029 [2]辽宁师范大学海洋经济与可持续发展研究中心,辽宁大连116029

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2014年第23期8064-8068,共5页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

摘　　要：现代物流业既是衡量一个区域经济发展水平和现代化程度的主要标志,也是推动区域经济发展的基本动力之一。基于区域物流与区域经济之间的相互作用内在机理,建立与现实尽可能接近的模型分析区域物流与区域经济关系是区域经济学研究的重要内容。该研究采用系统动力学的方法建立了区域物流与区域经济的因果关系图,并辅之以统计学方法确定参数,进而构建了区域物流需求及供给与三次产业之间的系统动力学模型,通过对模型中参数变化所引起的物流与经济各指标变化的分析,探讨辽宁省区域物流与区域经济的相互关系,以便为辽宁省区域物流与区域经济的协调发展提供相应的对策。Modern logistics industry is not only the main symbol of measuring the level of a regional economic development and modernization, but also one of the basic power to promote regional economic development. Based on the interaction mechanism between regional logistics and re- gional economy, establishing the model as possible as close to the reality to analyze the relation between regional logistics and regional economic is an important part of the regional economic research. A cause and effect diagram of regional logistics and regional economy was established based on system dynamics model, then the system dynamics model between the demand and supply of regional logistics and the three industries was built. Through analysis on the change in the indicators of logistics and economic caused by the model parameter variations, the relationship between regional Logistics and regional economic was discussed in order to provide appropriate countermeasures to promote coordinated develop- ment between regional logistics and regional economy in Liaoning Province .

关 键 词：区域物流 区域经济 系统动力学模型 辽宁省 

分 类 号：S181.4[农业科学—农业基础科学]