世界海运网络演变及未来发展趋势研究  

Research on the Evolution and Future Tendency of Global Shipping Network

作　　者：李振福[1] 李贺[1] 徐梦俏[1] 李漪[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学,辽宁大连116026

出　　处：《太平洋学报》2014年第5期95-105,共11页Pacific Journal

基　　金：国家社科基金项目"北极航线问题的国际协调机制研究"(08BGJ007);国家社科基金重大项目"中国北极航线战略与海洋强国建设研究"(13&ZD170);国家自然科学基金项目"北极权益博弈复杂网络格局演变的能量地形模型仿真研究"(61174166);教育部2013新世纪优秀人才支持计划"中国海洋强国战略与海疆安全研究";中国极地研究中心项目"北极航线全线开通背景下大北极交通运输网络演变研究"的阶段性研究成果

摘　　要：世界海运网络从零星的贸易路线到遍布全球的贸易网络的形成,经历了长达5000多年的时间,其发展历程可分为四个阶段:初现期、均衡发展期、剧变期及平稳发展期。本文以1763年为重要分界线,从地理位置、资源优势、政治状况、航海技术、供需定律、航运中心的形成等六个方面,分析了世界海运网络的演变过程,进而对世界海运网络的演变趋势进行了分析和预测,认为亚太地区有望成为新的航运中心。作为主要海运大国的中国,更应当采取积极的发展策略,应对世界海运网络演变所带来的巨大变革。Global shipping network has experienced a history of up to 5000 years, from the sporadic trade routes to the worldwide trade network. Throughout the course of the development, it can be divided into four stages： the early stage, balanced development period, upheaval period and peaceful development period. The article regards 1763 as an important dividing line and discusses the development process before 1763 in detail, and then analyzes the evolution of Global shipping network from six aspects, namely location, resources, political conditions, marine technology, the law of supply and demand, and shipping center formation. On the basis of the research, we predict the evolution of the world shipping network after 1763, and point out that Asia- Pacific region is expected to be the new Shipping Centre. However, China, as one of its Marine Powers, should actively take relevant development strategies to deal with the great changes caused by the evolution of the network.

关 键 词：世界海运网络 演变过程 航运中心 

分 类 号：U6[交通运输工程—船舶与海洋工程]