气候变化对城市和农村地区的影响、适应和脆弱性研究的认知  

Understanding of Climate Change Impacts,Adaptation and Vulnerability in Urban Areas and Rural Areas

作　　者：刘绿柳[1] 许红梅[1] 马世铭[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局国家气候中心,北京100081 [2]中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所/农业部农业环境重点实验室,北京100081

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2014年第4期254-259,共6页Climate Change Research

基　　金：国家科技支撑课题"IPCC第五次评估对我国应对气候变化战略的影响"(2012BAC20B05)

摘　　要：自IPCC第四次评估报告以来,对城市和农村地区气候变化影响、脆弱性、适应和风险管理文献都在增加。第五次评估报告取得了进展。主要包括:气候变化风险、脆弱性与所受的影响在全球范围不同规模、不同经济水平和地理位置的城市中心均在增加。改善基本服务不足的状况以及建设有恢复力的基础设施系统,可以显著降低城市地区的脆弱性和暴露度,特别是对于风险和脆弱性最高的人群来说。气候变化对农村地区的主要影响将体现在对淡水供应、粮食安全和农业收入的影响等方面。发展中国家农村人口更容易遭受多种非气候压力,包括农业投入不足、土地与自然资源政策问题和环境退化。包括增加可再生能源的供给、鼓励生物燃料种植或发展中国家减少砍伐森林和森林退化而造成的碳排放(REDD+)项目等在内的气候政策,将对有些农村地区有重要的间接影响,既有正面的影响(增加就业机会),也有负面的影响(景观变化和稀有资源冲突增多)。Since the Fourth Assessment Report （AR4） of IPCC,much evidence and findings of climate impacts on urban areas and rural areas and vulnerability in these areas have occurred,and the understanding of adaptation and risk management has grown.There is a growing body of literature on impacts,vulnerability,adaptation and risk management in both urban and rural areas since AR4.The Fifth Assessment Report （AR5） improves the following understandings on these issues.Urban climate change risks,vulnerabilities,and impacts are increasing across the world in urban centers of all sizes,economic conditions and site characteristics.Reducing basic service deficits and building resilient infrastructure systems can significantly reduce hazard exposure and vulnerability to climate change,especially for those who are most at risk or vulnerable.Major impacts of climate change in rural areas will be felt through impacts on water supply,food security and agricultural incomes.Rural people in developing countries are subject to multiple non-climate stressors,including underinvestment in agriculture,problems with land and natural resource policy,and processes of environment degradation.Climate policies,such as increasing energy supply from renewable resources,encouraging cultivation of biofuels,or payments under REDD＋ project,will have significant secondary impacts,both positive （increasing employment opportunities） and negative （landscape changes,increasing conflicts for scarce resources）,in some rural areas.

关 键 词：城市 农村 影响 适应 脆弱性 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]