中国降水量序列均一性分析方法及数据集更新完善  

Improvement in Homogeneity Analysis Method and Update of China Precipitation Data

作　　者：杨溯[1] 李庆祥[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局国家气象信息中心,北京100081

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2014年第4期276-281,共6页Climate Change Research

基　　金：公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201206012);公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201206013);国家自然科学基金(41305104)

摘　　要：基于中国气象局国家气象信息中心2012年发布的《中国国家级地面气象站基本气象要素日值数据集(V3.0)》,选取一定空间范围内相关性、数据完整性均较好的邻近站降水资料,构建参考序列,结合标准正态检验和台站历史沿革信息对我国2342个台站年、月降水资料进行均一性检验。采用相关系数权重平均方法和一阶差分方法相结合得到参考序列,以降低因计算方法和邻近站序列长度不一致等引起的参考序列不确定性。最终结果显示:98个台站降水序列存在断点,仅占总站数的4.2%。采用比值法订正上述非均一性的降水序列,订正后的序列在一定程度上消除了人为因素的干扰,部分台站降水量变化趋势(1 960—2009年)异常的问题得到改善。Based on the version 3.0 basic meteorology historical dataset released by National Meteorological Information Centre （NMIC）,China Meteorological Administration,at the end of 2012,inhomogeneity test of annual precipitation series of 2342 stations has been launched using Standard Normal Homogeneity Test （SNHT） method.The nearby stations with high correlation coefficients with candidate station and high data complement are chosen to construct reference series by correlation coefficient weighted average and first difference method.The results which depend on the reference series calculation method would be cut.Metadata is the most valuable evidence of change points,fortunately NMIC has been collecting historical information of meteorological observation stations over China for several years and a junior version ofmetadata could be employed in this study.Ninety-eight inhomogeneous stations are found,accounting for 4.2％ of all stations.The annual precipitation trends of these inhomogeneous stations during 1960-2009 are distinctly different from their nearby stations.Ratio method is applied to adjust inhomogeneous series and then the space homogeneity is improved,which suggests that the adjustment is efficient.

关 键 词：降水量 均一性 标准正态检验 比值订正 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]