利用CMIP5多模式集合模拟气候变化对中国小麦产量的影响  

Impacts of Climate Change on Wheat Yield in China Simulated by CMIP5 Multi-Model Ensemble Projections

作　　者：杨绚[1] 汤绪[2] 陈葆德[3] 田展[4] 赵思健[5] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学大气科学学院,南京210044 [2]上海市气象局,上海200030 [3]中国气象局上海台风研究所,上海200030 [4]上海市气候中心,上海200030 [5]中国农业科学院农业信息研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《中国农业科学》2014年第15期3009-3024,共16页Scientia Agricultura Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41371110;40921140410);中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201330;CCSF201110)

摘　　要：【目的】利用最新的国际耦合模式比较计划第五阶段(CMIP5)中30个全球大气-海洋耦合模式(AOGCMs)在典型浓度路径(RCPs)情景下的气候预估结果,基于集合模拟的方法评估气候变化对中国未来小麦产量的影响。【方法】气候变化对农业的影响评估通常基于未来逐日的气象资料,然而AOGCMs模拟的逐日数据存在较大的不确定性。利用"虚拟气候变暖"(PGW)的方法,将CMIP5模式预估的未来气候变化的信号与当前气候的逐日站点观测资料相结合,得到未来气候预估的逐日数据集合。结合作物过程模型CERES-Wheat,利用集合模拟的方法,以概率的形式量化表述气候变化对中国小麦产量影响的不确定性。【结果】未来中国冬春小麦代表站在其小麦生育期内的平均气温均有升高。预估21世纪末期,冬小麦代表站平均增温2.7—2.9℃,春小麦代表站平均增温3.0—3.3℃。RCP8.5情景比RCP2.6情景增温显著。预估未来冬、春小麦在其生育期内的降水量普遍增加,并随着排放量的增长,降水量表现出逐渐增多的趋势。在仅改变未来气候变化的条件下,冬、春小麦的灌溉小麦单产相对于1996—2005年普遍减产,并且随着气候变化,灌溉小麦的减产概率上升。春小麦代表站在灌溉条件下小麦减产的程度比冬小麦代表站更显著。预估到21世纪末期,冬小麦代表站在RCP2.6情景下减产2%左右,在RCP4.5情景下减产6%左右,在RCP8.5情景下减产9%左右,减产概率超过85%。预估春小麦代表站在RCP2.6情景下减产5%,在RCP4.5情景下减产8%以上,在RCP8.5情景下减产15%以上,减产概率超过90%。在雨养条件下,冬小麦代表站的小麦单产相较于1996—2005年显著增产。预估到21世纪末期,冬小麦代表站在RCP2.6情景下增产21%以上,在RCP4.5情景下增产22%以上,在RCP8.5情景下增产25%以上,增产概率超过90%。【结论】利用PGW方法获得未来气候预估的逐日数据集[Objective] By applying climate projections based on 30 Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models （AOGCMs） under representative concentration pathway （RCP） scenarios in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5）, the effects of climate change on wheat yield in China were assessed in terms of ensemble method. [Method] The impact assessment of climate change on crops is typically based on daily data. However, significant uncertainties exist among the AOGCM outputs, particularly in daily data. In this paper, a pseudo global warming （PGW） method was assumed to be a linear coupling of contemporary weather fields and the difference component of climate perturbation signals by AOGCMs. CERES-Wheat model was employed to stimulate the wheat yield in the future and a probabilistic approach is used to address the uncertainties. [Result] Warming is expected in all representative stations during the wheat growth period. Temperature increase under the RCP8.5 scenario is higher than that under the RCP2.6 scenario. The temperature in the representative stations of winter wheat is projected to increase by 2.7-2.9℃, and increase by 3.0-3.3℃ in the representative stations of spring wheat at the end of the 21st century. The precipitation rate is projected to significantly increase in the future. Compared with the baseline, the observation data collected from 1996 to 2005 show that the climate-change-induced wheat yield reduced in all representative stations under irrigation conditions. The reduction probabilities increased with climate change. The irrigated yield reduction in the representative stations of spring wheat was greater than that in the representative stations of winter wheat. By the end of the 21st century, the yield in the representative stations of winter wheat is projected to be decreased by 2% under the RCP 2.6 scenario. The yield reduction will be decreased by approximately 6% under the RCP 4.5 scenario and decreased by 9% under the RCP 8.5 scenario with a probability of 85%. In

关 键 词：CMIP5 小麦产量 集合模拟 概率评估 气候变化 

分 类 号：S512.1[农业科学—作物学]