基于STIRPAT模型的天津市低碳发展驱动力影响分析  

Analysis of the Driving Forces' Impact on the Low-carbon Development of Tianjin Based on STIRPAT Model

作　　者：李健[1,2] 王孟艳[1] 高杨[2] 

机构地区：[1]天津理工大学管理学院循环经济与企业可持续发展研究中心,天津300191 [2]天津大学管理与经济学部,天津300072

出　　处：《科技管理研究》2014年第15期66-71,共6页Science and Technology Management Research

基　　金：教育部人文社科规划项目"大型工业城市低碳发展的途径;模式与对策研究--以天津市为例"(11YJA630046);天津市教委社科重大项目"天津建设生态宜居城市的策略与评价体系构建研究"(2011ZD031)

摘　　要：以STIRPAT模型为基础,结合反推理论,找出天津市低碳发展影响驱动力,利用岭回归对1996-2011年天津市相关数据进行分析,建立描述天津市低碳发展与驱动力之间关系的模型。探讨人口增长、人均消费、能源强度、城市化率、第三产业比率等8个因素对天津市碳排放的影响。计算结果表明人口增长、人均消费、城市化率等因素加速碳排量增加,能源强度、第三产业比率等因素减缓碳排量增加。并就改善这些影响因素,提高城市低碳水平提出政策建议。This paper is based on STIRPAT model,combined with backcasting theory,using ridge regression analysis to analyze the related data of Tianjin from 1996 to 2011. And in order to find the related factors about Tianjin’s low carbon development,it builds up a model which describes the precise relation between the low-carbon development and the driv-ing forces in Tianjin. This paper aims to explore the influences of the eight driving factors on the carbon emissions in Tian-jin,including population,affluent degrees,energy intensity,urbanization rate and the ratio of the tertiary industry and so on. The results show that the population,affluent degrees and the urbanization rate play facilitating roles on the carbon e-missions. Energy intensity and the increase of the ratio of the tertiary industry have an inhibitory effect on the carbon emis-sions. Based on these conditions,this paper is trying to make policy recommendations to change these influential factors, thus,to decrease the urban carbon degree.

关 键 词：STIRPAT模型 低碳反推理论 岭回归分析 城市低碳发展 天津市 

分 类 号：F205[经济管理—国民经济] F224