步进式吸纳对技术存量水平的冲击及实证研究——基于加工制造业创新活动的离散变量随机过程分析  

Empirical Research on the Effect of Step-by-step Adoption on Technology Stock Level——Based on the Analysis of Stochastic Process of Discrete Variables in the Manufacture Innovation

作　　者：王必好[1] 卞红飞[2] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学商学院,江苏南京210093 [2]南京邮电大学经济学院,江苏南京210046

出　　处：《山西财经大学学报》2014年第8期11-21,共11页Journal of Shanxi University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：江苏省社科研究课题(13SQB-019);南京邮电大学社科基金项目(NYS213035)

摘　　要：随着技术应用与积淀日益深化,步进式技术吸纳引起厂商技术存量水平变动符合Markov动态过程的变化规律,具有无后效性特征。双门限回归结果表明,因为各厂商初始技术水平存在差异,步进式技术吸纳对厂商和行业技术存量增长产生倒U型冲击效应,对行业技术存量水平的正向冲击效应显著高于单个厂商。分位数回归结果显示,当每一步技术吸纳引起的技术集聚效应小于同期技术存量变动时,行业技术存量水平上升,反之则下降。With the deepening of technology application, the step-by-step technology adoption caused the variety in the stock of the technology, which conforms to the law of Markov dynamic process change, and presents non-aftereffect characteristics. The result of the double threshold regression indicates that, because of the difference of the initialization technology level from main manufactur- ers, step-by-step technology adoption has a inverse U effect, and positive effect is more prominent for the industries than the individual firms. The result of the quantile regression makes clear that the stock of the industrial technology will rise when the accumulation effect caused by adoption is less than technology stock in current, conversely, it will descend.

关 键 词：技术吸纳 随机过程 存量水平 

分 类 号：F062[经济管理—政治经济学]