商业银行理财业务发展对储蓄市场影响的实证研究  

Empirical research on the impact of commercial bank financial services' development on the saving market

作　　者：王君婕 张宁[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海理工大学管理学院,上海200093

出　　处：《科技与管理》2014年第4期1-4,共4页Science-Technology and Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(70971089);上海市一流学科(系统科学)项目(XTKX2012);上海市研究生创新基金项目(JWCXSL1202/JWCXSL1302)

摘　　要：近几年,我国商业银行理财业务发展十分迅速,理财产品发行数量和销售数额节节攀升。然而,理财业务的这种发展势头对储蓄市场产生了一定程度的冲击,各大商业银行争抢存款市场的竞争愈发激烈。以2007—2013年的我国理财产品发行量和全国储蓄存款余额的月度数据为基础,基于VAR模型,分析二者之间的动态关系。实证结果表明,二者之间存在协整关系,理财产品发行数量的增加对储蓄余额存在因果影响,反之则不成立。最后针对理财业务的进一步发展提出了相应的建议。In recent years, China＇ s commercial bank financial services developed very rapidly. The issuing number and scale of funds expanded sharply. However, the rapid development of financial services produced a certain de- gree of impact on saving market. The competition of trying to occupy the deposit market among major commercial banks is more and more fierce. Based on VAR model, this paper selects monthly data of the issuance of financial products and nationwide savings deposits from 2007 to 2013 then analyses the dynamic relationship between the two. The empirical results show that cointegration relationship exists between them and the increasing number of financial products issues a causal effect on the savings balance, not vice versa. On this basis, the paper puts forward relevant suggestions for further development of financial product market.

关 键 词：理财业务 储蓄市场 VAR模型 

分 类 号：F830.4[经济管理—金融学]