电网运行断面的自组织临界态辨识和量化分析  

Identification and Quantitative Analysis of Self-Organized Critical State in Running-Grid Section

作　　者：刘文颖[1] 但扬清[1] 朱艳伟[2] 蔡万通 王维洲[3] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学电气与电子工程学院,北京市昌平区102206 [2]国网浙江省电力公司宁波供电公司,浙江省宁波市315010 [3]国网甘肃省电力公司电力科学研究院,甘肃省兰州市730050

出　　处：《电网技术》2014年第8期2076-2081,共6页Power System Technology

摘　　要：电力系统自组织临界性表现在电网演化的长期过程和某个静态运行断面的运行过程2个方面。针对电网演化的长期过程进行连锁故障建模研究较为成熟,而针对静态运行断面进行连锁故障建模研究则较少。建立了一个基于去除慢动态过程的OPA模型,用于电网静态运行断面连锁故障的仿真计算。该模型不考虑电力系统的慢动态过程,而是基于某个静态断面进行仿真计算,单次仿真完成后系统重新恢复至原始运行断面,完成多次仿真后得到该运行断面下的大停电负荷损失分布数据。采用极大似然估计法和K-S检验法对大停电分布数据进行负荷损失累积概率分布律参数估计和检验,进而判断该运行断面下电网是否处于自组织临界态。然后针对处于不同自组织临界态的系统,建立了自组织临界态风险评估指标,将自组织临界态风险进行了数值化表征。Self-organized criticality of power system can be viewed in the two aspects, the long-running evolution process and static running section of grid. For study on the long evolution process of the grid is more mature, but still cascading failure model research for static running section is less. A cascading failure model is put forward based on OPA model which is removed slow dynamic process and is used to simulate cascading failure process for static running section of grid in this paper. This model does not consider the slow dynamics of the power system, but the calculation is based on a static simulation section. After completion of a single simulation, system restore to the original section. After the completion of several simulations, large power outage distribution data is obtained under this section. According to the data, the method of maximum likelihood and Kolmogorov-Smirnov are applied to fit the distribution law and determine whether the grid is self-organized critical state under this section. Then for self-organized critical state in a different system, self-organized critical state risk quantitative indicators is proposed to characterize the risk of self-organized critical state.

关 键 词：OPA模型 自组织临界态辨识 自组织临界态量化分析 电网运行断面 

分 类 号：TM721[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]