战略性新兴产业生命周期规律及产业转化研究——基于技术推动的视角  

Study on Life Circle Regulation of Strategic Emerging Industries and Industrial Transformation——Based on Technology-driven Perspective

作　　者：张永安[1] 邬龙[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学,北京100124

出　　处：《工业技术经济》2014年第8期3-8,共6页Journal of Industrial Technological Economics

摘　　要：本文以新兴产业演化为研究背景,重点研究了战略性新兴产业的演进过程和在经济系统中与其他产业的关系。根据目前战略性新兴产业的发展特点,将产业演化驱动因素分为内部因素和外部因素两大类,基于改进柯布—道格拉斯生产函数的产业模型,从技术、资本投资和劳动力投入3个方面对该模型进行了描述。仿真结果表明,战略性新兴产业的技术潜力和发展前景决定了其能否转化为未来的先导和支柱产业,战略性新兴产业的发展本质是技术的发展,且该产业的发展能够解决部分就业问题。This paper takes the evolution of emerging industries as the background, and focus on the evolution of strategic emerging industries and its relationship to other induces in the economic system. On the basis of the recent development characteristic of emerging industries, driving factors of the industry evolution are divided into two large categories： internal and external factors. Based on the improved Cobb- Douglas production function model, we described it from three aspects： the technology, capital investment and labor input. Simulation results show that the strategic potential and prospects of new technologies determine whether it can turn to the pilot and pillar industry in the future. The essence d strategic emerging industries development is the technology development, and the development of strategic emerging industries can partly solve the employment problem.

关 键 词：战略性新兴产业 驱动因素 产业生命周期 多AGENT仿真 

分 类 号：F121.3[经济管理—世界经济]