货币供给与中国经常项目差额波动研究——基于跨时现值模型  

A Study on the Money Supply and Fluctuations of China's Current Account Balance——Based on Intertemporal Present Value Model

作　　者：周亚军[1] 

机构地区：[1]新疆财经大学,乌鲁木齐830012

出　　处：《工业技术经济》2014年第8期130-138,共9页Journal of Industrial Technological Economics

基　　金：新疆财经大学中亚经贸研究院立项课题(课题编号:2012ZY63C010);新疆财经大学博士科研基金项目(课题编号:2013BS019)

摘　　要：本文通过对经常项目的跨时现值模型进行扩展，将货币存量包含进了模型，并利用中国1982-2012年的时间序列数据对模型进行实证检验。实证结果表明，包含货币存量的扩展模型对经常项目差额的预测能力有了提升，模型功效得到了显著改善。经常项目的决定不仅依赖于国民现金流的变化而且依赖于货币存量的变化，快速增长的货币存量使得居民对未来货币供给增加的预期进一步强化，导致了经常项目的增加。因此，保持合理的货币供给增速并增强货币政策的告示效应，是调节国际收支的有效途径。This Paper extends the intertemperal present value model of cttrrent account, integrates the stock of money, and uses times series data of China form 1982 to 2012 to conduct empirical test. The test results show that the extended model which includes the stock of raoney has improved the predictive ability to current account balance, the model＇s efficacy is significantly improved. The determi- nation of current account depends not only on changes in national cash flow but also ~m changes in the money stock. The rapid growth d the stock of money makes the residents further strengthen the expectations on the future expansion of the money supply, and results in the increase of the current account. Therefore, to maintain a reasonable growth of money supply and enhance the monetary policy announcement effects is an effective way to adjust the balance of payments.

关 键 词：跨时现值模型 经常项目 差额波动 货币存量 

分 类 号：F822.0[经济管理—财政学]