美国为何援助国际危机中的盟国(1946-2006年)  

Why the United States Assisted Its Allies in International Crises:1946-2006

作　　者：王石山[1] 韩召颖[2] 

机构地区：[1]南开大学周恩来政府管理学院国际关系专业,天津300071 [2]南开大学周恩来政府管理学院国际关系系,天津300071

出　　处：《世界经济与政治》2014年第8期107-134,159-160,共28页World Economics and Politics

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目(项目编号:13&ZD049);南开大学中央高校基本科研业务费项目的资助(项目编号:11994)

摘　　要：美国为何援助国际危机中的盟国?尽管既有的四种理论——实力一利益分析、制度主义、声誉重要论和相似政体互助论—为这一问题提供了部分知识,但由于多数理论没有考虑美国及其联盟政策的特殊性,因而不能有效解释美国的联盟援助行为。凭借对美国及其联盟政策的特殊性的分析,作者提出"条件性护权理论",认为美国援助盟国的主要动机是为了维护美国的权力,但这种动机的强弱受到危机与美国联盟义务的关联度、盟约的保留条款的限制。它假设在以下三种情势中,美国更可能援助国际危机中的盟国:(1)危机威胁美国的权力;(2)危机与美国的联盟义务直接相关;(3)美国与盟国的联盟条约中没有保留条款。Logistic回归分析的结果表明,既有四种理论的多数假设都没有通过显著性检验(实力变量和制度化变量除外),而条件性护权理论的三个假设都通过了显著性检验,对美国的联盟援助行为有较强的解释力。据此,条件性护权理论建议,中国应谨慎而明智地使用实力,帮助美国"管理"盟国。Why did the United States assist its allies in international crises? Although existing theories(eg.strength-interest approach,institutional approach,reputation approach,and similar polities mutual assisting approach) provide some wisdom toward the question,most of them cannot sufficiently explain America's behaviors when its allies were in international crises because they failed to analyze the characteristics of America and its special alliance policies.The theory of conditioned maintaining power(CMP) constructed in this article analyzes these characteristics and argues that the U.S.decision to assist its allies was mainly driven by the motivation of maintaining power,which is restricted by the reserved provisions designed in alliance treaties and the relevance between the U.S.alliance obligations and the crisis.It hypothesizes that the probability that the U.S.assists its allies in international crises increases in the following situations;(1) the crisis threatens U.S.power;(2) there is direct relevance between the U.S.alliance obKgations and the crisis;(3) there are no reserved provisions in the alliance treaties.The results of Logistic regression analysis indicate that,except the strength variable and the institutionalization variable,the hypotheses derived from exciting theories do not pass the significance test,while all the three hypotheses derived from CMP do,which indicates that the theory can effectively explain the U.S.assistance behaviors.On these grounds,it argues that China should use power prudently and wisely to help the U.S.to manage its allies.

关 键 词：美国外交决策 回归分析 联盟援助 国际危机 条件性护权 

分 类 号：D771.2[政治法律—政治学] D815[政治法律—中外政治制度]