基于系统动力学的城市交通拥堵治理问题研究  

Research on the governance of urban traffic jam based on system dynamics

作　　者：杨浩雄[1,2] 李金丹[1] 张浩[1] 刘淑芹[3] 

机构地区：[1]北京工商大学商学院,北京100048 [2]首都流通业研究基地,北京100048 [3]中央民族大学管理学院,北京100081

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2014年第8期2135-2143,共9页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家社科基金青年项目(11CGL105);北京市哲学社会科学规划项目(12JGC100)

摘　　要：近年来,我国城市交通供给和需求的矛盾在日益突出,城市交通拥堵问题越来越严重,除影响城市居民正常出行、导致环境污染加重外,严重影响了城市物流的正常运行,成为整个城市经济社会发展的制约因素.本文从城市交通拥堵这一现象入手,分析了交通拥堵的现状、原因、影响及其根源,从城市居民出行和城市物流两个角度总结了现有解决交通拥堵问题的对策,在此基础上结合我国的实际情况,用系统动力学的方法建立了治理城市交通拥堵的系统动力学模型,并以北京市为例,对北京市典型的治堵措施的实施效果进行了仿真分析,从而得出适合我国的解决城市交通拥堵的对策建议.In recent years, contradiction between supply and denland of urban transport of China is increasingly prominent, and urban traffic jam is getting more and more grave, seriously impact urban residents＇ normal travel, cause environmental pollution, as well as seriously impact normal operation of urban logistics and become development constraints of the whole city economy. This paper starts with phenomenon of urban traffic jam, and analyzes the present situation, the reasons, tile effect and the root of urban traffic jam, and summaries the existing measures for the governance of urban traffic jam from the perspective of urban residents travel and urban logistics. On the basis of summarizing the plugging measures as well as considering the actual situation of our country, this paper establishes the system dynamics model of the management of urban traffic jam with the method of systeln dynamics. In the last place, this paper takes Beijing as ail example, simulates the effect of the typical plugging nleasures in Beijing, and reaches the suggestions for China to solve urban traffic jam.

关 键 词：城市交通拥堵 居民出行 城市物流 系统动力学 

分 类 号：C94[自然科学总论—系统科学]