我国金融市场一体化与世界经济周期跨国传导研究  

Research on Integration of Financial Market in China and Cross-border Transmission of World Business Cycle

作　　者：雷磊[1,2] 宋伟[2] 

机构地区：[1]西南科技大学政治学院,四川绵阳621010 [2]中国科学技术大学公共事务学院,安徽合肥230026

出　　处：《经济问题》2014年第8期38-43,共6页On Economic Problems

基　　金：四川省社会发展与社会风险防控研究中心规划基金项目(SR13B05);西南科技大学政治学院基层政府治理课题基金项目(13sxt003)

摘　　要：随着全球化的深入,人们逐步认识到在贸易强度和产业结构之外,金融市场一体化也日渐成为经济周期跨国传递的重要渠道。基于此背景,构建了2004~2012年间面板数据,分别采用OLS、固定效应和GMM动态估计方法,研究了中国与世界主要经济体之间,经济周期协同性的多层次关系及其传导机制。研究结果发现,中国和不同经济发展程度的国家间经济周期的传导机制存在差异,金融市场一体化、贸易强度和产业结构相似度上升都将增强中国和发达国家的经济周期协同性,但是金融渠道对中国和发展中国家间的影响还没有出现,也就是说金融一体化的程度制约着发展中国家,其还不能充分利用国际金融市场分散投资风险。With the deepening of globalization, we realize that besides trade intensity and industrial structure, the integration of financial market is becoming an important channel of cross - border transmission of economic cycle. Based on the background, the paper establishes the panel data from 2004 to 2012. And the paper uses OLS, fixed effect and GMM to research hierarchical relation and transmission mechanism between Chin and major economic entities in the world. The research results indicate the transmission mechanism of economic cycle in China is different from that in the countries with different development degrees. The integration of financial market, trade intensity and the increase of the similarity for industrial structure will enhance the cooperation of economic cycle of China and developed countries. But financial channel has no influence on China and developed countries, which means that financial integration restricts developing countries, but it can＇t fully use international finance market to disperse the investment risk.

关 键 词：经济周期协同性 金融市场一体化 贸易强度 产业结构 

分 类 号：F015[经济管理—政治经济学]