人口密集区域天然气管网系统脆弱性分析  

Analysis of vulnerability of natural gas pipeline system in densely populated urban area

作　　者：尤秋菊[1] 朱伟[1] 白永强[2] 李晓秋 

机构地区：[1]北京城市系统工程研究中心城市运行研究部 [2]北京市劳动保护科学研究所安全生产统计分析中心 [3]中海油安全技术服务有限公司安全技术研究所

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2014年第6期153-158,共6页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目(2012BAK27B01-04);北京市财政项目(056C);青年骨干项目(201404)

摘　　要：为比较准确地确定天然气管网系统的薄弱环节,结合其特点,提出系统脆弱性的概念。基于灾害链理论,深入分析天然气管网系统脆弱性要素,探讨导致管网系统脆弱性的致灾因子,找出天然气管网系统的威胁部位。利用流量阻断模型(FIM),建立管网系统结构性威胁的计算模型。最后,利用模型分析北京某区域天然气高压管网系统脆弱性。结果表明:北京市三环、四环路周围调压站(箱)中22站、16站、29站、41站的脆弱性较高,应重点巡查与监控。In order to identify more accurately the weak links in natural gas pipeline systems, a vulnera- bility concept of natural gas pipeline system was established on basis of characteristics of natural gas pipeline system. Based on disaster chain theory, factors affecting the vulnerability of natural gas pipeline system were deeply analyzed. The vulnerabilities hazard of natural gas pipeline system was determined. Threatened parts of gas pipeline network system were identified. By using the FIM, a calculation model was built for structural threat on gas pipeline network system. At last, on basis of the model, vulnerability of a certain part of natural gas pipeline system in Beijing was analyzed. Results show that regulator stations （boxes） near the 3rd and 4rd Ring, such as station 22, station 16, station 29, and station 41 have obviously higher vulnerability and should be monitored carefully.

关 键 词：天然气管网 人口密集区域 自身结构性威胁 脆弱性分析 重要度 流量阻断模型(FIM) 

分 类 号：X937[环境科学与工程—安全科学]