Tapio脱钩指数测算方法的改进及其应用  

Improving Tapio Decoupling Measurement Method and its Applications

作　　者：孙睿[1] 

机构地区：[1]重庆大学经济与工商管理学院,重庆400030

出　　处：《技术经济与管理研究》2014年第8期7-11,共5页Journal of Technical Economics & Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(70903080);重庆大学自主科研资助项目(CDJSK10 00 68)

摘　　要：文章在综述脱钩指数测算方法和应用的基础上,对"脱钩"概念和脱钩指数测算方法理解和应用的误区进行了辨析。借鉴Tapio脱钩指数测算方法,改进形成"两阶段滚动"Tapio指数测算方法。在此基础上,采用1980-2011年我国能源和碳排放有关数据,对我国能源和碳排放脱钩状态进行了测算和分析,结果与现有主流研究有所差异,1981年后我国能源消费和碳排放与经济增长,总体分别处于"增长连接"和"弱脱钩"状态,高耗能高排放特征长期突出,在各子期间内变化不大。其中,2003年后,能源消费主要与经济增长有关,增量碳排放主要与能源消费增长有关。现阶段,我国应主要通过推进以节能和向低能耗产业结构转型的"能源脱钩"政策,来促进能源和碳排放的双脱钩。同时,印证了新方法的有效性和解释力。After evaluating current decoupling indicator calculating methods, especially about Tapio method, and pointing out possible problems during applying these methods, an improved two-stage rolling measuring method of Tapio indicator is proposed, which can be applied for justifying the energy consumption and carbon emission decoupling status. Based on related data of China between 1980 and 2011, energy and carbon emission decoupling dynamics of China are measured and analyzed. Result are slightly different from current other research, which point out that, after 1981, energy consumption is positively connected to, while carbon emission is weakly decoupled from economic growth. Growth of energy consumption and emission is significant during sampling period. Especially , after 2003, incremental emission is mainly induced by increasing energy consumption, which is mainly stimulated by economic growth. Therefore, it is advised that, at current stage, energy decoupling, characterized by energy conservation and industrial transformation towards low energy consumption, is the main policy tool to push ahead energy and carbon emission decoupling at meantime.

关 键 词：脱钩指数 Tapio方法 碳排放 能源消费 经济增长 

分 类 号：F222.1[经济管理—国民经济]