基于合作博弈的东江流域用水不确定性研究  

Study on the Uncertainty of Water Use Based on Cooperative Game Theory in the Dongjiang River Basin

作　　者：何艳虎[1] 陈晓宏[1] 林凯荣[1] 

机构地区：[1]中山大学水资源与环境研究中心//华南地区水循环和水安全广东普通高校重点实验室,广东广州510275

出　　处：《中山大学学报（自然科学版）》2014年第4期136-141,共6页Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Sunyatseni

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51210013;41001019);广东省水利科技创新资助项目(2011-11);中英瑞气候变化适应项目广东气候变化风险评估及适应对策研究(ACCC/20100705-1)

摘　　要：为进行变化环境下区域部门未来用水的不确定性研究,引入经济学中的合作博弈理论,在考虑各用水部门组成的用水联盟机会收益的前提下,依据国家用水总量控制指标,以广东省东江流域及其各分区为例,建立了基于合作博弈的各用水户用水分解模型并对其求解,给出了研究区2020年生产、生活和生态用水的合作博弈核心,即未来流域各用水户基于用水总量控制的用水量合理分配区间。东江流域2020年生产、生活和生态用水控制量区间分别为42.61~62.89亿m^3,25.2~42.06亿m^3和0.46~9.31亿m^3。通过各用水户用水量控制指标集的确定,为用水总量控制下流域未来用水管理目标提供了重要参考。The cooperative game theory in economics was introduced into the analysis of future water use uncertainty of regional water use sectors .The cooperative game theory cores of productive , domestic and ecological water supply of the whole Dongjiang River Basin and its sub-regions in Guangdong Province were made and future water use for each sector was allocated in a form of value range based on water de-composition model involving cooperative game theory , considering water opportunity income of water alli-ance consisting of each water use sector under national total water use control indicator .The water con-sumption index sets of the whole Dongjiang River basin and its sub regions were provided , and the control amount intervals for productive , domestic and ecological water use in the Dongjiang River basin in 2020 are 4.26~6.29 billion m3 , 4.26~6.29 billion m3 , 2.52~4.21 billion m3 , 0.046~0.93 billion m3 , respectively .This provides an important reference for future water management of the Dongjiang River ba -sin under water volume control .

关 键 词：合作博弈 核心 用水不确定性 东江流域 

分 类 号：TV213[水利工程—水文学及水资源]