基于启发式分割和近似熵法的径流序列变异诊断  

The Study on the Runoff Change Based on the Heuristic Segmentation Algorithm and Approximate Entropy

作　　者：黄生志[1] 黄强[1] 王义民[1] 陈昱潼[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安理工大学西北旱区生态水利工程国家重点实验室培育基地,陕西西安710048

出　　处：《中山大学学报（自然科学版）》2014年第4期154-160,共7页Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Sunyatseni

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重大资助项目(51190093);国家自然科学基金资助项目(51179148;51179149);国家重大基础研究973资助项目(2011CB403306-2);教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划资助项目(NCET-10-0933);陕西省重点实验室资助项目(11JS077)

摘　　要：对河川径流的变异研究不仅有助于掌握变化环境下径流的演变规律,还能提高水文分析、水文模拟以及水文计算结果的准确度。以渭河流域为研究对象,采用启发式分割和近似熵方法,对渭河年径流序列进行了变异诊断,诊断结果表明:林家村以上流域存在1971和1994年2个变异点;张家山以上流域无变异点存在;整个渭河流域存在1969和1993年两个变异点。此外,通过对渭河径流变异归因分析可知,该流域径流变异主要是由气候变化(1971年的El Nino和1994年的ENSO事件)与人类活动(水利工程建设、流域下垫面的改变以及大量开采地下水和地表水)的共同作用所导致的。The study on the variation of runoff not only helps to master the evolvement rule of runoff un -der the background of change climate , but also causes the results of hydrological analysis , hydrological simulation and hydrological calculation to be more accuracy .The object of study in this paper is the Wei River Basin.The heuristic segmentation algorithm and approximate entropy theory are employed to detect the mutation points of the annual runoff in the Wei River basin .The diagnosis results suggest：there are two mutation points , 1972 and 1994 , in the basin above Linjiacun; there are no variation points in the basin above Zhangjiashan; there are two change points , 1970 and 1994, in the Wei River Basin as a whole.Furthermore, the attribution analysis on the variation of runoff indicates that the variation of runoff in this basin is caused by the mutual effects of climate changes （ the El Ni？o of 1972 and the ENSO of 1994 events） and human activities （the construction of water conservancy project , the changes in under-lying surface and excessive exploitation of groundwater and surface water ） .

关 键 词：启发式分割法 近似熵法 河川径流 变异诊断 渭河流域 

分 类 号：P338[天文地球—水文科学]