华东、华南与西南地区某些地震区地震趋势分析  

Analysis of the future earthquake situation for some seismic zones in the east China,south China and southwest China

作　　者：秦四清[1] 李培[1] 薛雷[1] 李国梁[1] 王苗苗[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地质与地球物理研究所中国科学院页岩气与地质工程重点实验室,北京100029

出　　处：《地球物理学进展》2014年第3期1033-1045,共13页Progress in Geophysics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金委重点项目(41030750)资助

摘　　要：运用孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论及相关预测方法,分析了华东、华南与西南地区某些地震区未来地震趋势,给出了这些地震区未来中强震、强震或大震的四要素预测结果.分析表明:南通东部黄海地震区未来有大震发生,威海地震区是一个MS6.0级地震危险区,宜昌地震区未来有中强震发生.鉴于我们近期对特定地震区的强震孕育周期界定及主震事件判识有了新的认识,故重新研判了万州地震区、普洱地震区、宜宾-长宁地震区与丽江地震区的未来震情.本文所得结论可供有关部门参考,以制定相应的防震减灾措施.According to the brittle failure theory of multiple locked patches in a seismogenic fault system developed by us,the earthquake situation for some seismic zones in east China,south China and southwest China is analyzed in the paper.Meanwhile,the prediction results,including the magnitude,place,critical strain,and hypocentral depth of the moderatestrong,strong earthquake or major earthquake,are also presented. The results suggest that a strong or major earthquake will occur in the Huanghai seismic zone in east Nantong,Weihai seismic zone is a MS6.0earthquake risk region and a moderate-strong earthquake will occur in Yichang seismic zone.Furthermore,because we have recently made enhanced insights into the definition of seismogenic period of strong earthquakes and recognition of the main shock events for the specific seismic zone,the future earthquake situation in Wanzhou,Pu＇er,Yibin-Changning and Lijiang seismic zones is re-discussed in this paper.The department concerned should consider the conclusions obtained in this paper for taking precautions against earthquakes.

关 键 词：华东地区 华南地区 西南地区 地震区 锁固段 孕育周期 

分 类 号：P315[天文地球—地震学]