北京市电网雷害分布规律及风险评估  

Risk Assessment and Temporal-spatial Distribution of Power Grid Lighting Disasters in Beijing

作　　者：甘璐 李津 邓长菊 张德山 扈海波[2] 叶宽[3] 

机构地区：[1]北京市专业气象台,北京100089 [2]中国气象局北京城市气象研究所,北京100089 [3]北京电力试验研究院,北京100075

出　　处：《应用气象学报》2014年第4期499-504,共6页Journal of Applied Meteorological Science

基　　金：公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201306043);北京市气象局科技研发专项(2013BMBKYZX13);北京市气象局"精细化预报服务和业务平台创新团队"项目

摘　　要：根据1996—2009年北京市逐日电网灾害资料分析了北京市电网雷害的发生规律,结果显示:北京市电网雷害存在季节变化和日变化特征。结合同期气象观测站的雷暴日资料、北京市各区县的经济和人口密度特征提出了电网雷害概率、电网雷害频度、电网雷害密度、经济易损模数和生命易损模数作为北京市电网雷害风险评估指标。在此基础上,采用4级分区法对上述电网雷害易损性评估指标进行分级,并将北京市各区县按照5个电网雷害评估指标的所属等级值累加,得到电网雷害综合易损风险评估的评估系数。结果表明:北京地区电网雷害高风险区集中在北京城区中心附近,山区和山前迎风坡地带尽管电网雷害频次较高,但电网雷害风险却相对较低。Based on the daily power grid disaster data during 1996-2009 in Beijing,power grid disasters caused by the thunder and lighting （hereafter referred as power grid lighting disasters）are investigated.Results show that power grid lighting disasters present seasonal and daily variations in Beijing.Seasonal variation characteristic of power grid lighting disasters is mainly centralized from June to September,account for 88.4%.The highest appear in August,it can account for 32.9%.And daily variation characteristics anal-ysis shows that from 1500 BT to 2100 BT is the high-incidence period.The analysis on spatial distribution of power grid lighting disasters indicates that there are more disasters in the north than those in the south. In terms of the same period of the daily thunderstorm data,economic and population characteristics,five indices are selected to evaluate the risk of power grid lighting disasters in Beijing,such as power grid light-ing disaster probability,power grid lighting disaster frequency,power grid lighting disaster density,eco-nomic vulnerability module and life vulnerability module,respectively.And the different power grid light-ing disaster evaluation indices are investigated.Four-grade classification methods are used to classify the e-valuation indices in order to assess the risk of the power grid lighting disasters in Beijing.Firstly,the five indices are classified into four degrees with a given value as follow：The highest and the lowest degrees are 1.0 and 0.2,while the intermediate degrees are 0.8 and 0.5.Secondly,the comprehensive vulnerability e-valuation index of power grid lighting disasters is obtained by adding the degree values of five indices. Then the comprehensive vulnerability evaluation index is also graded as four degrees,which are defined as the maximal damageable area,the high-damageable area,the medium damageable area and the lower dam-ageable area.Finally,regional vulnerability zoning of the power grid lighting disasters are obtained by the average value of the power gri

关 键 词：电网雷害 风险评估 易损度 防雷减灾 

分 类 号：TM863[电气工程—高电压与绝缘技术]