珠江三角洲近地层CO_2通量模拟分析与评估验证  

Simulation analysis and verification of surface CO_2 flux over Pearl River Delta, China

作　　者：麦博儒[1] 安兴琴[2] 邓雪娇[1] 周凌晞[2] 王春林[3] 李菲[1] 黄建平[4] 陈玲 尹淑娴 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局广州热带海洋气象研究所/广东省区域数值天气预报重点实验室,广东广州510080 [2]中国气象局大气化学重点实验室,中国气象科学研究院大气成分研究所,北京100081 [3]广东省气候中心,广东广州510080 [4]南京信息工程大学,耶鲁-南京信息工程大学大气环境研究中心,江苏南京210044 [5]东莞市气象局,广东东莞523086

出　　处：《中国环境科学》2014年第8期1960-1971,共12页China Environmental Science

基　　金：广东省自然科学基金项目(S2012040007057;S2011010004771);国家重点基础研究发展计划(2010CB950601);中国气象局气候变化基础能力建设项目(CCSF201306;CCSF201405);广东省气象局科学技术研究项目(2012B10;2011B02);广东科技计划项目(2012A061400012;2011A032100006)

摘　　要：利用能分别代表珠江三角洲草地、城市绿地及地带性森林植被生态系统的番禺站、东莞站和鼎湖山站CO2净通量资料对CT-2010碳源汇反演模式系统进行了验证,并利用该模式初步分析了区域净碳通量的时空分布及不同生态系统的碳汇特征.结果表明：CT-2010模式模拟的珠江三角洲城市绿地、地带性植被、以及草地生态系统碳通量与站点观测结果具有较好的一致性,其拟合相关系数（r）高于0.60（P〈0.01）,小时、逐日、日变化的残差均值低于2.0μmol/（m2·s）;模式一定程度上能反映3种生态系统碳通量的季节分布特征,但各月的模拟值均高于观测值,其中对城市绿地生态系统的模拟最接近,残差年均值为0.964μmol/（m2·s）,对草地和地带性森林植被生态系统的模拟效果相当,残差年均值分别为2.056,2.100μmol/（m2·s）;2004∽2005年期间珠江三角洲地区近地层净碳通量为3.43μmol/（m2·s）,其中冬季最强,为1.4μmol/（m2·s）,春季次之,为1.35μmol/（m2·s）,秋季和夏季最低,分别为0.51和0.18μmol/（m2·s）;在冬、春两季,珠江三角洲区域为强的碳源区,而在夏、秋季,粤北和粤东大部分地区为较弱碳汇区;2004∽2005年期间珠江三角洲地区陆地生态系统的碳汇为-6.5×10-3PgC,其中农作物,草地/灌木,常绿针叶/阔叶混合林是吸收CO2的主要生态系统,其净通量占陆地生态系统的比率分别为42.01%,31.46%和26.53%.Carbon dioxide is the primary greenhouse gas involved in climate change. This gas is responsible for 85% of the increase in radiative forcing over the past decade and 81% over the last five years. Accurate estimations of strength and spatiotemporal distributions of surface sources and sinks of CO2 are thus of great interest to the scientific community and policy makers. The CO2 measurement and modeling system developed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and called the Carbon Tracker-2010 （CT-2010） was used to analyze the seasonal and spatial distributions of net CO2 flux and CO2 sink characteristics of terrestrial ecosystems in the Pearl River Delta （PRD） region. Prior to doing simulations, the CT-2010 model was validated using in situ observations from the Panyu meteorological site （PYQXJ）, the Dongguan site （DG）, and the Ding Hushan site （DHS）, which are representative of grassland, urban green space, and forest ecosystems in the PRD region, respectively. Net fluxes from the CT-2010model compared with observations from the three sites well. Hourly, daily, and diurnal residuals were less than 2.0 mmol/（m2·s） and correlation coefficients were greater than 0.60 （P〈0.01）. The CT-2010 model captured well the seasonal patterns of CO2fluxes over the PRD regiola. However, the magnitude of the simulated fluxes was generally greater than that of the observed fluxes. Annual residuals were 2.056, 0.964, and 2.100μmol/（m2·s）at the PYQXJ, DG and DHS sites, respectively. From June 2004to May 2005, the mean surface net flux over the PRD region was 3.43μmol/（m2·s）. In summer, fall, winter, and spring, mean surface net fluxes were 0.18, 0.51, 1.4, and 1.35 μmol/（m2·s）, respectively. The mean terrestrial flux in the PRD was -6.5×103 PgC. The region during this time was dominated by crops （42.01%）, grassland/shrubs （31.46%）, and mixed （coniferous/broadleaf） forest （26.53%）.

关 键 词：CARBON Tracker碳源汇反演模式 珠江三角洲区域 近地层CO2通量 陆地生态系统 

分 类 号：X511[环境科学与工程—环境工程]