预测油田产量和可采储量模型的典型曲线及其应用  

Model's typical curve and its application for forecasting production and recoverable reserves of oilfields

作　　者：陈元千[1] 邹存友[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油勘探开发研究院,北京100083

出　　处：《石油学报》2014年第4期749-753,共5页Acta Petrolei Sinica

基　　金：国家重大科技专项(2011ZX05043-002);中国石油天然气股份有限公司重大科技专项(2014E-32-03)资助

摘　　要：预测模型是油藏工程的重要组成部分。其不但可以预测油田的产量和可采储量,也可以预测油田因开发调整或三次采油方案实施增加的可采储量。预测模型按产量和累积产量的变化特征,可分为单峰周期模型和累积增长模型2类。前者包括翁氏模型、威布尔模型、瑞利模型、陈-郝模型和广义模型等,后者包括HCZ模型和哈伯特模型等。针对单峰周期模型,通过无因次处理油田实际开发数据与典型曲线的最佳拟合,能够得到模型指数m和模型常数a、b、c,即可用于对油田产量和可采储量的预测。通过对单峰周期模型的分解,分析了模型的控制因素。应用实例表明,典型曲线和拟合求解的方法是实用有效的,该方法还可用于多峰产量变化的预测。Forecasting model is an important part in reservoir engineering, which can be used not only in forecasting production and reserves of oil and gas fields, but also in forecasting increased reserves because of development adjustment or tertiary oil recovery. According to changing characteristics of production and cumulative production, the forecasting model can be divided into two types： single peak cycle-models and cumulative growth models. The former models include Weng model, Weibull model, Reyleigh model, Chen-Hao model and generalized model, and the later models include HCZ model and Hubbert model. For single peak cycle-models, the model index m and model const a, b and c can be obtained by the best match between dimensionless oilfield development data and type curve, which can be used to forecast production and reserves of oil and gas fields. Moreover, the control factors for the models are analyzed by the decompositions for the single peak cycle-model. The example shows that the type curve and matching methods proposed in this paper are practical and effective and can be applied in forecasting the production with multiple peaks.

关 键 词：单峰周期模型 无因次化 典型曲线 数据拟合 产量预测 

分 类 号：TE328[石油与天然气工程—油气田开发工程]