数量特征敏感问题加法RRT模型下分层三阶段抽样的统计方法及应用  

Additive RRT model for inquiring quantitative sensitive questions under stratified threestage sampling and its application

作　　者：陈科锦[1] 高歌[1] 范玉波[1] 杨少春[1] 杜俏俏[1] 

机构地区：[1]苏州大学医学部公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学系,江苏苏州215123

出　　处：《南京医科大学学报（自然科学版）》2014年第8期1115-1119,共5页Journal of Nanjing Medical University(Natural Sciences)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(81273188)

摘　　要：目的:为实际需要的数量特征敏感问题复杂抽样提供可靠有效的调查方法及其统计公式;为制订艾滋病的预防控制措施提供科学依据。方法:采用数理统计学理论方法推导统计公式;对北京市男男性行为(MSM)人群进行实例调查;通过蒙特卡洛模拟,采用SAS编程模拟调查分析100个样本,对本研究的调查方法及其统计公式作信度与效度评价。结果:推导出数量特征敏感问题加法模型下分层三阶段抽样总体均数估计量及其方差的统计公式;北京市MSM人群首次男男性行为的年龄、月不同性伴人数、月性行为次数的均数分别为21.96岁、2.80人、4.85次,其标准误分别为0.127岁、0.096人、0.559次;100个总体均数的95%可信区间均包含模拟总体均数。结论:MSM人群具有艾滋病的高危性行为,应加强其预防控制。本文研究的调查方法及其统计公式具有良好的信度与效度,可用于今后大规模的敏感问题抽样调查。Objective：To explore reliable and efficient sampling methods and corresponding formulae for quantitative sensitive question survey on three-stage random sampling.To provide scientific data for the prevention and control of high risk AIDS population.Methods：We derived statistical formulae from mathematical statistics theory;investigated MSMs in Beijing for instance;used SAS programming to simulate investigation and analysis of 100 samples through Monte Carlo simulation and accessed validity and reliability of methods and formulae studied in this article.Results：We derived statistical formulae of the overall mean estimator and its variance on quantitative sensitive questions under stratified three-stage sampling.The means of ages of the first occurrence of MSM,the monthly number of different sexual partners and the monthly number of sex were 21.96 years old,2.80 people,4.85 times,respectively,among MSM in Beijing,and their standard errors were 0.127 years old,0.096 people,0.559 times,respectively.All of the population mean of 95% confidence interval obtained from 100 analog samples contains population mean.Conclusion：For high-risk sexual behavior among MSM with AIDS,its prevention and control should be strengthened.Monte Carlo computer simulation results show that stratified three-stage sampling method and corresponding formule are feasiblae and could be applied in the sensitive issue of large-scale sampling in the future.

关 键 词：敏感问题的随机应答技术 分层三阶段抽样 男男性行为 蒙特卡洛方法 效度与信度 

分 类 号：C81[社会学—统计学]