随机控制试验法及其在创新、创业和政策评估领域的应用  

Randomized Controlled Trial and Its Application in Innovation,Entrepreneurship and Policy Assessment

作　　者：李纪珍[1] 李雅文[1] 陈思澍 

机构地区：[1]教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地清华大学技术创新研究中心,北京100084 [2]科技部科技型中小企业技术创新基金管理中心,北京100045

出　　处：《技术经济》2014年第8期62-67,127,共7页Journal of Technology Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"基于知识流动的产业共性技术创新平台研究"(71273152);科技部科技型中小企业技术创新基金管理中心项目"科技型中小企业创新基金管理改革研究"(20135660543)

摘　　要：随机控制试验广泛应用在理工科,但在人文和社会科学领域则较少,特别是创新创业及政策评估领域。论文在回顾随机控制试验这一方法的发展历史之后,介绍了随机控制试验法的3种随机分组方式和9个设计步骤,讨论了该方法的一些优势、不足和关注的话题,并探讨了这一方法在科技计划评估中的"黄金准则"价值。论文期待越来越多的中国学者应用随机控制试验法进行创新创业和政策评估领域的研究。Beside being widely used in science and engineering literatures, randomized controlled trial can also be applied in the field of humani- ties and social sciences studies, as well as innovation, entrepreneurship and policy evaluations. Based on the history of randomized controlled trial＇s development as a research method, this paper introduces the three types of randomization method and nine steps of designing the random- ized controlled trial approach. The paper also discusses certain strength, weaknesses, and concerns of this method, together with the ＂gold standard＂ value for science and technology program impact assessment. We are looking forward to having more and more Chinese research on innovation, entrepreneurship and policy assessment using the method of randomized controlled trial.

关 键 词：随机控制试验 创新 创业 政策评估 

分 类 号：N03[自然科学总论—科学技术哲学]