新兴市场国家三元悖论框架选择为何中间化？--基于经济增长和金融稳定视角的分析  

Why Do the Emerging Market Countries Choose the Trilemma Framework Featuring “Middle-ground Convergence”?——Based on the Analysis from both Economic Growth and Financial Stability Perspectives

作　　者：靳玉英[1] 周兵[2] 

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学国际工商管理学院 [2]招商银行上海分行私人银行部

出　　处：《国际金融研究》2014年第9期34-44,共11页Studies of International Finance

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“世界经济周期性波动及其对我国宏观审慎监管框架构建的政策含义研究”(12AZD051);国家自然科学基金项目“零利率下限约束下货币政策和财政政策组合研究:理论、实践及中国的前瞻性政策含义”(71173142);上海财经大学研究生创新基金资助项目“新兴市场国家外汇市场压力问题的研究”(XJJ-2011-322)

摘　　要：本文基于经济增长和金融稳定视角,分析29个新兴市场国家三元悖论框架的演化及该框架选择的经济效应。研究结果表明,首先,新兴市场国家的三元悖论框架未遵循三元悖论,而是呈现"中间化"的特征;其次,中间化的三元悖论框架有助于经济增长和金融稳定,符合新兴市场国家利益;第三,储备对经济增长和金融稳定作用显著,能缓解三元悖论框架分离对经济增长的负向作用,但不能弱化三元悖论框架分离对金融稳定的负面影响。This paper analyses the evolution of trilemma framework and the economic effect of this framework in 29 selected Ems in terms of economic growth and financial stability. The interesting results are as followed： First, the trilemma framework doesn＇t follow the traditional theory, but shows the characteristics of middle-ground convergence; Secondly, the trilemma framework with characteristics of middle-ground convergence is conducive to economic growth and financial stability, in line with the state interests of the Ems; Finally, the reserves play a significant role in economic growth and financial stability, which can alleviate the negative effect on economic growth of the trilemma framework, but cannot weaken the negative effect on financial stability.

关 键 词：金融稳定 金融危机 三元悖论 分离指数 

分 类 号：F831[经济管理—金融学]