“人民币区”初现与中国培育区域性货币依赖的可能性分析  

Emergence of an RMB Area:An Analysis of the Prospects for Chinese Promotion of Currency Dependency

作　　者：付争[1] 许佳[2] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁大学国际关系学院 [2]吉林大学<东北亚论坛>编辑部

出　　处：《当代亚太》2014年第4期101-125,159-160,共25页Journal of Contemporary Asia-Pacific Studies

基　　金：辽宁大学2013年度人文社科类青年基金项目"货币权力视角下的人民币国际化"(项目编号:2013LDQN25);辽宁大学亚洲研究中心亚洲问题研究项目"中日韩比较优势变化对区域生产分工的影响"(项目编号:Y201412);辽宁省社会科学界联合会2013年辽宁经济社会发展课题"新能源与辽宁经济发展研究"(项目编号:2013LSLKTZIJJX-32)的资助

摘　　要：通过对亚洲金融危机后人民币在东亚货币篮子中的权重估算发现,"人民币区"正在东亚区域内日益显现。文章认为,"人民币区"的出现源自中国在区域内所构建的贸易往来和产业资本投资网络,以及中国因综合国力提高所增强的地缘辐射能力,而非金融危机后的暂时性存在。因此,虽然中国在东亚地区尚不具有货币操纵的权力,但可以通过贸易分工、资本投资网络以及金融外交来巩固并强化周边国家和地区对人民币的货币依赖,以弱化美元"超级特权"对东亚地区经济平稳运行和货币政策自主性所施加的压力。This article provides a measure of the relative weight of the Chinese Yuan within a basket of East Asian currencies in the period following the Asian Financial Crisis.Its analysis shows that an RMB Area is increasingly prominent in East Asia.The roots of the 'RMB Area' can be found in the network of trade and capital investment that China has built across the region,and in China's increasing regional reach stemming from its growing national power.The article further argues that the Area is not a temporary phenomenon associated with the financial crisis.While China presently lacks the power to manipulate currencies in East Asia,the scope of its trade,investments and its financial diplomacy has enhanced the dependency of the region on the RMB,and weakened the privileged position of the U.S.dollar in influencing the stability of the regional economy and local autonomy over monetary policy.

关 键 词：“人民币区” 隐含权重 货币依赖 东亚 

分 类 号：F821[经济管理—财政学]