湖北省近50年降水时空变化特征与未来5年降水变化预测  被引量:2

Features of Precipitation Change of Hubei Province During Last 50 Years and Trend Prediction in Next 5 Years

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作  者:吴乐知[1] 卢明珠[2] 

机构地区:[1]湖北师范学院城市与环境学院,黄石435002 [2]中国科学院东北地理与农业生态研究所,长春130102

出  处:《世界科技研究与发展》2014年第4期375-383,共9页World Sci-Tech R&D

基  金:国家社科基金(09CJL026);湖北省人文社科基地资源枯竭型城市转型与发展研究中心开放基金(Kf2013y04);湖北师范学院人才引进项目(2008F19)资助

摘  要:采用湖北省郧西、老河口、麻城、恩施、宜昌、武汉6个气象台站1963~2012年降水的观测资料,运用距平统计、5年滑动平均、线性拟合等方法,分析了湖北省近50年各季节及全年降水状况,运用马尔科夫预测法对各台站2013~2017年年降水量进行了预测并用反距离权重(Inverse Distance Weighted,IDW)空间插值方法将预测扩展到其他未知区域。研究表明,湖北省近50年年降水量没有明显增减,但春、秋季降水量有减少趋势,夏、冬季呈增加趋势,夏季增雨中心在鄂东北,冬季增雨中心在鄂东南,20世纪90年代以来降水量波动性增强,稳定性减弱;预测2013~2017年年降水量鄂西北将略有增加,其他地区将不同程度减少。在此基础上,提出了湖北省各地区应对降水情况变化的对策建议,为湖北省乃至我国中部地区气候变化研究、湖北省社会经济持续健康发展提供参考。Based on precipitation observation data collected from 6 surface meteorological stations named Yunxi,Laohekou, Macheng,Enshi,Yichang,Wuhan in Hubei province from 1963 to 2012,by using many analytic methods,such as anomaly statistics,5 -year moving average,and liner trend,seasonal and annual changes in precipitation in Hubei province during the last 50 years were analyzed.Furthermore,on the basis of Markov Chin forecasting model,annual precipitation of the 6 stations above in the following 5 years 2013 to 2017 were predicted,and they were extended to the unknown regions in Hu-bei province using the inverse distance weighting (IDW)spatial interpolation.The results showed that the annual precipita-tion in Hubei province during the last 50 years presented no obvious fluctuation,seasonal precipitation reduced in spring and autumn and increased in summer and winter,however.The summer increasing center lay in the Northeast and winter in the Southeast.Besides,the volatility boosted since the 1990s,thus the stability declined.As was predicted,in the following 5 years,the annual precipitation may raise to a small extent in Northwestern Hubei and decline in other regions.Based on the analysis above,counter-measures to cope with the precipitation change in Hubei province were put forward,thus laying the foundation for the research on climate change in Hubei province and even central China,or contributing to Hubei's sustain-able development.

关 键 词:降水变化特征 马尔科夫预测 空间插值 湖北省 

分 类 号:P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]

 

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