我国个人所得税弹性的实证分析:1980—2011  

The Elasticity of Personal Income Tax System in China:1980-2011

作　　者：彭海艳[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院,北京100836 [2]宜春学院,江西宜春336000

出　　处：《财贸研究》2014年第1期93-98,共6页Finance and Trade Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目"个人所得税的再分配效应及机制重塑研究"(10CJY067);中国博士后基金特别资助项目"多目标约束下个人所得税制建模;智能优化及应用"(201104203);江西省高校人文社会科学研究项目"我国个人所得税再分配效应的理论与实证研究"(JJ1001)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：在对税收弹性测量方法进行比较分析的基础上,运用1980—2011年时间序列数据,采用虚拟变量技术,基于协整理论与误差修正模型,估计个人所得税的短期和长期弹性,并与税收浮动率进行比较。结果发现:个人所得税体系在整个考察期间富有弹性,且短期弹性远小于长期弹性。这表明:虽然个人所得税呈现累进性特征,但税收征管水平存在明显的滞后性;个人所得税浮动率小于个人所得税弹性,说明近年来基于税收公平目标的人为税收政策调整,在增加额外税收收入上是无效的。税收改革目标的多维度,要求进行全面的、持续的税制改革来保持税收收入弹性,而不是零星的人为政策调整。On the basis of a comparative analysis for measuring the elasticity of tax revenue,this paper examines short- run and long- run elasticity of Personal Income Tax（ PIT） during 1980- 2011 w ith cointegration test and error correction model,w hich involves the use of dummy variables to represent important discretionary changes,and compares the estimates of buoyancy. It is believed that PIT system is considered elastic,and short- run elasticity is greater than long- run elasticity,w hich serves as an indicator of the progressivity on personal income tax,but the level of tax administration is lagged,w hile the tax buoyancy is less than tax elasticity,w hich means that discretionary tax policies for fair goal are not helpful in raising additional tax yield. Tax reform goal is multi- dimensional,and should be comprehensive and continuous tax reforms to maintain the elasticity of tax revenue,rather than sporadic discretionary tax policies.

关 键 词：个人所得税 税收弹性 税收浮动率 

分 类 号：F812.42[经济管理—财政学]