基于人口和土地利用的新城区交通生成预测分析  

Trip Generation Forecasting Analysis of New Urban District Based on Population and Land Use

作　　者：汪垚 郑建峰[2] 

机构地区：[1]华杰工程咨询有限公司,北京市100029 [2]天津高速公路集团有限公司,天津市300384

出　　处：《公路》2014年第8期11-16,共6页Highway

摘　　要：在交通运行特征方面,新规划的城区与已建成的城区之间差异越来越大,交通生成预测阶段所需要的各种条件,在新城区的规划研究阶段都难以满足,并且其他现状资料的收集难度也非常大,在新城区交通规划的研究中,传统的交通量预测"四阶段法"已经难以满足研究需求。通过研究城市人口、土地利用类型与交通出行需求三者之间的相关性,针对新城区在未来规划发展中的问题与特点,建立了新城区规划过程中的交通生成预测模型。首先,根据土地利用类型与交通出行需求直接相关的特性,建立不同土地利用类型的交通需求模型,包括交通产生和交通吸引模型。其次,为反映交通可达性与土地利用强度对不同交通小区带来的交通产生、吸引的需求差异,借鉴了区位势的概念。最后,通过基础资料和分析研究确定各交通小区交通产生量和吸引量的回程出行比例,从而使规划新城区的预测交通产生量与吸引量达到平衡。In terms of traffic characteristics, new urban district has increasing difference with built-up district. Many conditions which trip generation prediction stage needs cannot be satisfied, and the work of data collection is difficult to complete, so the traditional four-stage predict method cannot be used for transportation demand forecasting of new urban district. Based on the restricting relationship between traffic demand, urban population and land use, a new transportation demand forecasting model for new urban district is established in the paper according to new urban district features and characteristics. Firstly, generating and attraction models are established for a variety of land use types based on the feature that land use types is directly related with the traffic demand. Secondly, the location potential coefficient is referenced into the model in order to reflect the traffic demand differences of generating and attraction which the transport accessibility and land use intensity cause. Finally, the balance between traffic generation and attraction of new urban area is achieved by the confirming of the return trip proportionality factor.

关 键 词：规划新城区 交通生成预测 土地利用强度 区位势 

分 类 号：U491.113[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]