供应中断风险应急情景范式研究  

A study on the scenario paradigm of supply interruption risk management

作　　者：朱传波[1,2] 季建华[1] 刘彩虹[2] 

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学中美物流研究院,上海200052 [2]嘉兴学院商学院,上海200052

出　　处：《上海管理科学》2014年第4期64-66,共3页Shanghai Management Science

基　　金：国家社科基金项目(10CGL026);国家自然科学基金项目(70732003)

摘　　要：和一般的风险不同,突发事件具有发生低概率低一高后果、难以预测的特征,进而使得企业的应急管理难度加大,情景规划提供了一种有效的分析方法。供应中断风险应急管理的情景设计需要在识别影响供应中断风险的关键因素的基础上,刻画风险与应急情景维度,并建立不同情景下的应急范式。Comparing with the general risk, disruption risk represents the characteristics of low probability, strong impact and unpredictability which make the business more difficult for emergency management. The scenarios analysis method would be an effective method to deal with such kind of problems. We have to develop scenarios which describe key scenario dimensions and create different paradigms of contingency scenarios in the light of the whole process of disruption, identification of key factors affecting business interruption.

关 键 词：供应中断 突发事件应急管理 情景分析 

分 类 号：F253[经济管理—国民经济]