海潮模型在珠江口潮位预测中的精度评估  

Accuracy Assessment of Tide Prediction Using Ocean Surge Model at Estuary of the Pearl River

作　　者：尹小玲[1] 朱磊[1] 江辽[1] 

机构地区：[1]华南理工大学土木与交通学院,广州510640

出　　处：《中国防汛抗旱》2014年第4期25-28,共4页China Flood & Drought Management

摘　　要：结合卫星测高技术的海潮模型能方便、精确地模拟大洋潮汐,可用于缺乏观测资料的地区。为评估该方法在珠江河口潮位预测应用中的精度,本文采用NAO.99b、OTPS和WWT等3种海潮模型预测珠江口不同验潮站的潮位过程,与实测数据对比并计算误差均方根。分析结果表明,海潮模型可以较好地预测珠江河口区潮汐基本时间特征,潮位预测精度在一定区域、一定时段不低于传统的预测方法。口门附近尤其口外的预测精度明显高于口内;在洪水期精度下降但口外开阔区域影响较小;在口门处,潮优型河口湾的预测精度高于径流型河口。3种模型中,推荐使用WWT。Using satellite altimetry technique ,ocean tide model is able to simulate the oceanic tide conveniently and precisely and can be applied to the zones without observational data. In this paper, three models of NAO.99b, OTPS and WWT are used to predict the tidal processes at the stations around the mouths of the Pearl River estuaries in order to evaluate accuracy of the model method in this area. The errors of root mean square RMS of the predictions to the observations are calculated. The results demonstrate that the ocean models can forecast the basic time characteristics of the tides and have a higher precision than the traditional methods in certain areas during certain periods. The accuracy at the entrances, especially just outside of the mouths, is evidently higher than that within. During flood season, the accuracy decreases but has less influence on the open areas outside of the mouths. The tidal dominant entrances have better predictions than the river dominant estuary. Among the three models, WWT model is recommended for its higher accuracy and greater adaptation.

关 键 词：海潮模型 潮位预测 误差均方根 珠江口 

分 类 号：P731.23[天文地球—海洋科学]