全球海表温度在不同时间尺度的主模态对比分析  

A Comparative Analysis of Main Modes of Global-scale Sea Surface Temperature on Multiple Time Scale

作　　者：刘鹏[1] 江志红[1] 于华英[2] 秦怡[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室,江苏南京210044 [2]南京信息工程大学遥感学院,江苏南京210044

出　　处：《地球科学进展》2014年第7期844-853,共10页Advances in Earth Science

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划项目"东亚季风区年际-年代际气候变率机理与预测研究"(编号:2012CB955204);江苏省博士后科研资助计划项目"不同温盐环流强度背景下北太平洋海表温度年代际振荡的变率研究"(编号:1301137C)资助

摘　　要：利用1880—2009年HadISST资料,去掉百年全球变暖的信号,研究发现东太平洋、北太平洋和北大西洋都有较强的年际和年代际振荡信号,特别是赤道东太平洋南侧的年代际振荡是不容忽视的。对全球范围的海表温度资料做EOF分析发现,存在3种主要的全球尺度信号,第一模态为太平洋型、第二模态为北大西洋型以及第三模态为赤道中太平洋型。特别指出,第三模态是CP ENSO在全球模态中的表现。这3种模态在年际和年代际尺度都有显著的信号,在无滤波的情况下,3种模态方差贡献之和为34%。在年代际以上时间尺度范围,3种模态方差贡献之和为61%。在各种时间尺度中,这3种信号与全球平均温度都有一定的联系,尤其第一、二模态的影响最为重要,在年代际尺度中,第一、二模态方差贡献之和达到50%。2005年以后全球并没有明显增温,可能与前2个模态同时下降有关。The HadISST data from 1880 to 2009 were used with the removal of the signal of global warming of one hundred year. The results showed that there were the significant interannual and interdecadal oscillation signal at the eastern Pacific and north Pacific and north Atlantic. Especially the decadal oscillation in the south of eastern equatorial Pacific could not be ignored. We found that there are three major global-scale signals by using the Empirical Orthogonal Function （EOF） analysis on global sea surface temperature. The first mode is （ENSO-like/ PDO-like） Pacific pattern, the second mode is （AMO-like） the north Atlantic pattern and the third mode is （EN- SO Modoki-like/CP ENSO-like） Center Pacific Ocean pattern. In particular, the third mode is the performance of Center Pacific E1 Nino-Southern Oscillation in the global mode. There are significant signals in interannual and in- terdecadal scales, and in the unfiltered conditions, the three modes can explain 34% of total variance contribution. Above the interdecadal scale, the sum of three modes variance contribution is 61%. In various time scales, the three signals and the average global temperature have a connection, especially the influence of the first and second mode is the most important. In the decadal scale, the sum of the first and second modal variance contribution is 50%. Since 2005, there has been no significant signal of global warming associated with the simultaneous decline of the first two modes.

关 键 词：全球尺度 海表温度 主模态 时间尺度 

分 类 号：P731.11[天文地球—海洋科学]