基于博弈论对我国体育彩票诚信问题的理论研究  

The Game Theory Analysis of Sports Lottery Center's Integrity Problem

作　　者：张易[1] 熊燕[1] 

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学体育部,四川成都611130

出　　处：《四川体育科学》2014年第4期15-21,共7页Sichuan Sports Science

摘　　要：依据彩民的质疑,以理性经济人为假设,分别从客观诚信和主观诚信两个方面建立数学模型,从博弈论的视角对体彩中心经营的诚信问题进行了分析证明,结果表明:(1)在客观上体彩中心摇奖结果是随机的、诚信的。(2)在主观上,论证了在一次博弈中体彩中心和彩民存在着"囚徒困境",而在长期的博彩活动中,体彩中心选择不作弊和彩民选择信任的策略组合是有效率的,但其前提是需要彩民对体彩中心的初始信任。对上述结论,提出加强体彩中心摇奖设备诚信的宣传力度、进一步完善体彩中心信息披露机制和制定体育彩票销售网点的销售行为管理办法、打击"收费预测数字型体彩开奖结果"的违法活动的四点改善性建议。Attempt to give the response to the suspicion of lottery players that sport, lottery center might cheat in the gambling, this paper establishes a game theory model from the aspects of the objective and subjective integrity respectively to demonstrate the integrity to sports lottery center, the result is as follows： （ 1 ） From the aspect of the objective integrily, sports lottey center is in good faith and the result of the gambling is random. （ 2 ） From the： aspect of the subjective integrity, demonstrates that in the one-period game, there exsits a ＂Prisoi er＇s Dilemma＂ in the choices of lottery center and lottery players, whereas in the long term, the strategies combination of sports lottey center＇s not cheating and lottery players＇s keeping trust is efficient with the premise that the players trust center at the beggirming of the gambling. Thus it proposes three recommendations of sports lottery center to improve its credibility, including strengthening the propagandize of the integrity of sports lottery center＇s ernies, developing the inform;ttion disclosure mechanism of sports lottery center, and drafting the management regulation of spc,rts lottey sales outlays＇ behavior.

关 键 词：博弈论 体育彩票 诚信问题 

分 类 号：G80-052[文化科学—运动人体科学]