银合欢豆象在云南省的潜在分布区预测  

Prediction of Potential Geographical Distribution of Acanthoscelides macrophthalmus in Yunnan Province

作　　者：杨欣 熊忠平[2] 佟友贵 张开存 张会燕 杨伟娴 施艳萍 

机构地区：[1]昆明市东川区森防站,云南昆明654100 [2]西南林业大学林学院云南省森林灾害预警与控制重点实验室,云南昆明650224 [3]昆明市东川区住房和城乡规划建设局,云南昆明654100

出　　处：《热带作物学报》2014年第8期1653-1657,共5页Chinese Journal of Tropical Crops

基　　金：云南省森林保护学省级重点学科建设项目(No.XKZ200905)

摘　　要：为了掌握银合欢豆象在云南的潜在分布区,为银合欢豆象在云南省的发生、早期预警和防控提供参考资料,利用银合欢豆象的分布点数据和环境因子数据,通过Maxent生态位模型预测了银合欢豆象在云南省的适生范围区。结果表明:银合欢豆象在云南省适生范围分为4级,高适生区以绿色表示;中适生区以蓝色表示;低适生区以浅黄表示;非适生区以红色表示。利用ROC曲线分析法对预测结果进行验证表明:其训练数据和测试数据分别为0.995和0.996,远大于随机分布模型的AUC值0.5,说明预测结果可靠。Ecological niche modelling technique, Maximum Entropy（Maxent） were used to predict the potential distribution of Acanthoscelides macrophthalmus in Yunnan Province based on associations between known occurrence records and a set of environmental variables in order to grasp the potential distribution, to provide a reference for insect pest situation, early warning, and the prevention and control of A. macrophthalmus. The results showed that the suitable areas for A. macrophthalmus were divided into 4 grades by different colors： black for the highly suitable areas, dark grey for the moderate suitable areas, light grey for the low suitable areas and white for the unsuitable areas. The use of ROC curve analysis to verify the predicted results showed that the training data and test data was 0.995 and 0.996, respectively, much larger than the random distribution model AUC value of 0.5, indicating it was reliable.

关 键 词：银合欢豆象 Maxent生态位模型 潜在分布区 ArcGIS软件 云南省 

分 类 号：S431.3[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]