桂花花期气象预报研究  

Study on Prediction of Osmanthus fragrans Flowering Date

作　　者：王存真[1] 唐广田[2] 白先达[2] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学,南京210044 [2]桂林市气象局,广西桂林541001

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2014年第22期74-78,共5页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

摘　　要：为了更准确地提供桂花开花期的预报,利用桂林市近15年的始花期观测资料,普查分析气象原因,挑选气象因子,用统计分析方法,建立预报模式。结果表明,温度、湿度、日照、降水对桂花开花期有明显影响;影响桂花花期的原因比较复杂,在实际进行花期预报时,根据时间提前的长短,又可以分为长期预报和短期预报,长期预报又为气候预测,只是花期偏早或偏迟的趋势预测,短期预报则是临近开花前1周的预报。长期预报模式和短期预报模式在2013年的业务应用中取得了较好的效果。In order to provide forecast of Osmanthus flowering period, the author used flowering observation data in recent 15 years in Guilin and established the forecast model by selected meteorological factors. The results showed that the temperature, humidity, sunlight and rainfall had obvious effects on Osmanthus flowering. The influence factors of Osmanthus flowering were more complex. In the actual work of flowering forecast, according to the length of time in advance of flowering, it could be divided into long-term forecast and short-term forecast. Long-term forecast was climate prediction, just a trend prediction of flowering late or early. Short-term forecast was the one that make 1 week before the flowering. Long-term forecast and shortterm forecast model had achieved good effect in application in 2013.

关 键 词：桂花 花期 气象预报 

分 类 号：S685.13[农业科学—观赏园艺]