基于卫星降水的重庆市旱涝监测及其可靠性分析  

Floods/Drought Monitoring Based on TRMM Precipitation Z-Index and Its Reliability Analysis

作　　者：吴建峰[1,2] 陈阿林[1,2] 嵇涛[1,2] 曹广杰 朱翠霞[1,2] 鲁小平[3] 

机构地区：[1]重庆师范大学地理与旅游学院,重庆400047 [2]GIS应用研究重庆市高校重点实验室,重庆400047 [3]重庆市气象局,重庆401147

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2014年第23期296-302,共7页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金：重庆市气象局开放式研究基金项目"重庆地区起伏地形下气温空间分布的三维模拟"(KFJJ-201303);重庆市教委科学技术研究资助项目"普通高校IPv6网络建设推进模式;技术方案和应用研究"(KJ100624)

摘　　要：为了弄清重庆地区旱涝变化规律,为该地区旱涝监测、农业生产等提供参考,以处于长江流域上游的重庆市为研究对象,将TRMM 3B43月降水数据运用到单站点旱涝监测Z指数中,构建基于遥感数据的TRMM-Z指数,从而对重庆市2000—2011年间的旱涝情况进行年和月尺度上的监测,并利用同期气象站点Z指数对TRMM-Z指数进行可靠性分析。结果表明:(1)TRMM-Z指数监测方法在区域旱涝监测中具有很好的适用性和精度。TRMM-Z指数与气象站点Z指数年尺度相关系数为0.87,月尺度为0.85,都通过了P<0.01的显著性检验。(2)年旱涝特征,在2000—2011年际间重庆地区共发生2次干旱(大旱、极旱)、2次洪涝(大涝、极涝),波及范围基本覆盖整个重庆地区。其余年份TRMM-Z指数在正常的范围,但也有局部区域受到一定程度旱涝灾害。(3)月旱涝特征,TRMM-Z指数围绕0呈锯齿状增大减小交替变化,其中,2011年4月干旱程度最强,TRMM-Z指数达-1.878,2007年7月洪涝程度最强,TRMM-Z指数达1.930;旱涝统计显示,洪涝发生频次略高于干旱,1年12个月里,平均约有2.6个月发生洪涝,2.5个月发生干旱;从旱涝变化趋势来看,1月、9月、10月呈下降趋势,其中1月下降幅度最大,其余各月均呈上升趋势;2006年的7月和8月表现为最干旱月份。In order to clarify the variation of floods/drought and monitoring and agricultural production in Chongqing, the author regard provide references for floods/drought ed Chongqing which was in the upper of the Yangtze River as the research object. And through applying the monthly TRMM 3B43 precipitation data to the single site Z-index method, the author monitored Chongqing floods/drought on the scale of year and month from 2000 to 2011 by building TRMM-Z index based on remote sensing date. At the same time, the author analyzed the reliability of the TRMM-Z index by using the meteorological station Z Index. The results showed that： （1） TRMM-Z index monitoring method had good applicability and accuracy in the regional floods/drought monitoring. The correlation coefficient between TRMM-Z index and meteorological station Z index was 0.87 on year scale and monthly scale was 0.85. Both indicators are passed P〈0.01 significance test. （2） In floods/drought characteristics, 2 droughts （drought, extreme drought and 2 floods （large floods, extreme floods） in Chongqing have occurred in 2000 to 2011. （3） Month floods/drought characteristics, TRMM-Z monthly index fluctuated up and down around the value 0, alternating droughts and floods. During the time, the strongest degree of drought was in December 2003 and its value was -1.878. The strongest degree of flood was in August 2006 and its value was 1.930. And the floods/drought statistics showed that floods （2.6 months in an average of a year） happened more frequently than drought （2.5 months in an average of a year）. From the trends of floods/ drought, January, September and October showed a downward trend and the largest declined in January. However, floods/drought showed an upward trend in the rest of the month. In 2000-2011, the driest happenedin July and August in 2006.

关 键 词：重庆 TRMM降水 Z指数 旱涝监测 时空特征 

分 类 号：P429[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]