广西金秀县“2013-07-14”重大漂流灾害事件的气象特征分析  

Meteorological Characteristics Analysis on the Serious Rafting Accident in Jinxiu in Guangxi Province on July 14,2013

作　　者：黄明策[1] 黎惠金 李向红[3] 李江南[4] 梁维亮[1] 翟丽萍[1] 

机构地区：[1]广西区气象台,南宁530022 [2]来宾市气象局,广西来宾546100 [3]桂林市气象局,广西桂林541001 [4]中山大学环境科学与工程学院大气科学系,广州510275

出　　处：《热带地理》2014年第4期489-499,共11页Tropical Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41275060);广西自然科学基金项目(2013GXNSFAA019288);广西气象局科研项目(桂气科201104)

摘　　要：利用常规气象地面观测资料、探空资料，中小尺度自动站监测网、雷达遥感等非常规观测资料，对于2013-07-14发生的广西金秀县漂流灾害事件的气象特征进行分析，结果表明：广西金秀县天堂谷漂流灾难是由一个小尺度的脉冲对流单体风暴在发展强盛过程中，产生的短时强降水所引发，脉冲对流单体风暴在雷达速度剖面图上具有低层经向辐合和高层辐散出流的特征，回波高度超过10 km，但上升气流未出现倾斜，强回波中心主要位于3~6 km 的暖层云中，是典型的强降水风暴类型特征；脉冲对流单体风暴处在台风槽尾部的高温高湿大气环境条件下，边界层强辐合线是对流单体风暴生成和发展的主要动力强迫机制；雷达反演的降水量能够较精确地反映无雨量监测站流域的雨强，反演的平均面雨量超过30 mm/h，为禁止漂流的危险等级。雷达估测产品的应用能为山洪、泥石流和滑坡灾害多发区的监测预警提供可行的方法。As the rafting tourism in mountain streams is developing extensively at home, the torrential flood caused by the very short time heavy rainfall becomes the most potential “killer”to the safety of the rafting tourism under complicated terrain. Because of lacking rain gauge data, the purpose of this paper was to use dynamic relationship between the factor of base reflectivity and the intensity of rain（Z-I） with the technique of Doppler radar to estimate quantitatively the precipitation causing the rafting accident in Jinxiu on July 14, 2013. The meteorological factors also were researched based on the conventional and non-conventional meteorological data including surface and sounding data, and the micro-mesoscale observations and radar data. The results showed that the flash heavy rain which was caused by an intensely developed microscale storm was the primary reason of the disaster. The features for heavy rain were obvious in the radar images. It converged at low and middle level, diverged at high level in the storm. The non-slope updraft extended up to 10 km. The intense echo mainly came from the warm cloud which was 3-6 km high. The convergence line in the boundary in the warm and moist typhoon-trough was the dynamic uplift mechanism. The quantitatively precipitation estimate （QPE） based on radar data could represent the precipitation in the valley approximatively, where there ware no observations. The average area rainfall was more than 30 mm/h, reached the dangerous level for rafting. Radar-QPE is a new effective method to monitor the geological disasters for early warning issue.

关 键 词：非常规观测资料 脉冲风暴 短时强降水 漂流事故 气象特征 

分 类 号：P426[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]