海南瓜菜春季干旱风险分析与区划  

Spring drought damage risk analysis and zoning of melon and vegetables in Hainan Province

作　　者：张蕾[1,2] 霍治国[1,3] 黄大鹏[4] 姜燕[5] 于彩霞[1] 吴立[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081 [2]国家气象中心,北京100081 [3]南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报与评估协同创新中心,南京210044 [4]国家气候中心,北京100081 [5]中国气象局应急减灾与公共服务司,北京100081

出　　处：《生态学杂志》2014年第9期2518-2527,共10页Chinese Journal of Ecology

基　　金：公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201206019);国家科技基础性工作专项(2007FY120100);国家自然科学基金项目(41101517)资助

摘　　要：利用海南省18个站点1998—2011年的逐日气象资料、冬种瓜菜的产量和面积资料,基于3—4月降水量、无雨日数、连续无雨日数、最长连续无雨日数对春季干旱的综合影响,采用主成分分析法构建春季干旱综合指数,建立春季干旱等级指标。通过减产率分离得到春季干旱导致的瓜菜(西瓜Citrullus lanatus、豇豆Vigna unguiculata、辣椒Capsicum annuum、丝瓜Luffa cylindrica)灾损,综合考虑致灾、孕灾、灾损、防灾能力进行瓜菜春季干旱灾害的综合风险分析与区划。结果表明:瓜菜春季干旱致灾风险指数呈现东西高、中间低的分布,且不同春季干旱等级风险概率分布存在着明显的地区差异;春季干旱孕灾环境指数以海南中部的五指山为中心向四周逐渐减小;4种瓜菜的灾损风险和防灾能力分布地域差异显著;集成致灾、孕灾、灾损、防灾能力得到的干旱综合风险,4种瓜菜的高风险区均主要分布在海南的西部和南部部分地区,低风险区在海南的中部和东部部分地区。Using the 18 meteorological stations observation data as well as the yield and planted area data of melon and vegetables in Hainan Province during 1998-2011, a spring drought grade index system was constructed based on the comprehensive drought index using precipitation, dry days, continuous dry days and maximum continuous dry days during March and April. Damage loss induced by spring drought was separated from the total yield reduction rate. A comprehensive drought risk model of melon and vegetables （watermelon, cowpea, paprika, luffa） was built by integrating with hazard index, damage environment, damage loss and damage prevention capability. The results showed a high spring drought hazard index occurred in the eastern and western parts of Hainan while a low index in the central regions, and the risk probability of different grade hazard indices differed with regions. Damage environment index decreased from Wuzhishan district to the periphery. Drought damage loss and prevention capability differed in different regions. The high comprehensive drought risk index of melon and vegetables mainly occurred in the western and southern parts of Hainan, while the low index in some central and eastern regions. Our results provide useful information to a better understanding of drought risk for melon and vegetables and help for the policy-making of disaster risk management.

关 键 词：海南 瓜菜 干旱综合指数 信息分配 干旱风险 

分 类 号：S642[农业科学—蔬菜学] S423[农业科学—园艺学]