基于物元可拓的高压油气井井控风险定量评价  

Quantitative risk assessment model for highpressure oil and gas well control based on the matter-element extension

作　　者：金业权[1] 胡满 吴谦[1] 方传新 

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(华东)石油工程学院,山东青岛266580 [2]中海油安全技术服务有限公司,天津300452

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2014年第4期147-150,共4页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目(2008BAB37B02)

摘　　要：加强高压油气井井控风险评价是安全钻井的重要工作之一,也是有效防范、减少和杜绝高压油气井井喷失控事故的基础。针对高压油气井井控风险的特点,提出了11个关键的高压油气井井控风险诱因,并建立了各风险诱因的风险等级评价指标体系。在定量化和归一化井控风险指标的基础上,结合可拓理论建立了基于物元可拓法的高压油气井井控定量评价模型。以罗家16H井为例,提取可拓分析法所需要的诱因参数,运用该模型进行计算分析。结果表明,该井的等级变量特征值为3.54,介于"高度风险"和"极高风险"之间,而偏向"极高风险"。该风险等级评价结果与罗家16H井的实际情况基本相符。该井的主要风险诱因为地层流体、高压、灌浆不足、高产、抽汲等,与事故调查组专家对该井井喷失控原因分析的结论一致。研究表明,该井控风险定量评价模型具有一定的准确性和实用性,可以用于现场高压油气井单井井控风险评价。The present paper is aimed at introducing its study on e valuating highpressure oil and gas well control risks, trying to find the dominant factors leading to the well blowout. It is for this purpose that we have proposed an integrated evaluation model based on the matterclement extension theory for its advantages of the objective e valuation, simplified calculation and mature countermeasures for deal ing with the complicated highpressure oil and gas well control risks. It is a/so for this purpose that we have first of all proposed a set of 11 key highpressure oil and gas well riskcontrol incentives based on the basic parameters in accordance with the advice of the authoritative ex perts. Thus, in reference to the study of the oil and gas industry op erating standards, we have divided the oil and gas well control risks into four grades and formulated each risk incentive＇ s evaluation in dexes relative to the different risk grades. And, for the second, the successful application of the matterelement extension theory to thewell control risk indexes has enabled us to set up a model for the highpressure oil and gas well control risk based on the matterele ment extension. A weighted summarization of all the correlationde gree indexes let us make a careful assessment of the well control risk involving riskgrade indexes and work out eigenvalue of the risk＇ s grade variables. Besides, we have summarized all the main risk in centives through their weighting indexes. And, on the third, taking Luojia 16H Well for example, we have extracted each incentive pa rameter to work through the aforementioned model. The results of our investigation and calculations prove that the eigenvalue of this well risk＇s grade variate is 3.54 which is most approximate to 4, which suggests that Luojia 16H Well has the highest grade risk. What＇ s more, through the evaluation of the calculated incentives, the main risk incentives of the well lie in the gas layer, high pressure, insuffi cient grout, high production, swabbing and so on. A re

关 键 词：安全工程 井控安全 高压油气井 风险诱因 物元可拓法 

分 类 号：X937[环境科学与工程—安全科学]