流域突发性水污染事故风险评价方法及其应用  

A Method of Environmental Risk Assessment for Abrupt Water Pollution Accidents in River Basin

作　　者：张珂[1] 刘仁志[1] 张志娇[1] 胡兰群 贾中富 卓玉侠 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学环境学院,北京100875 [2]南阳市环境监测站,河南南阳473055 [3]淅川县环保局,河南南阳474450 [4]西峡县环保局,河南南阳474550

出　　处：《应用基础与工程科学学报》2014年第4期675-684,共10页Journal of Basic Science and Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41271514);国家科技支撑计划项目(2011BAC12B02)

摘　　要：针对流域环境风险评价所涉及的大尺度、多源多受体和邻域效应等难点问题,借鉴区域生态风险评价中的相对风险模型,结合环境风险评价常用方法,细化模型评价要素的量化过程,纳入水质模型和GIS空间分析技术,提出突发性水污染事故风险的流域相对风险评价方法.以南水北调中线水源地丹江口水库入库支流老灌河流域为例,开展流域突发性水污染事故风险评价.评价结果显示,风险呈沿河流方向逐渐增加的分布特征,上游尾矿库和老灌河水体分别是流域风险管理应重点关注的风险源和受体.不确定性分析表明相对误差为4.9%,一定程度上验证了该方法的有效性与稳定性.Abrupt water pollution accidents have occurred frequently and caused huge environmental and economic damages. Environmental risk assessment in river basin scale could provide an useful tool for preventing or mitigating such accidents. However, there are some obstacles met when dealing with multiple risk sources （stressors）and multiple risk receptors in such a large spatial scale. A new method, originated from the Relative Risk Model （RRM） in regional scale ecological risk assessment, was presented to address these problems. The framework of RRM was adopted and the ranking procedure was improved in the method. Using more specific information, quantitative models are constructed to estimate likelihood and severity of risk elements with the help of water quality models and GIS tools. The method was applied in the Laoguan River, a tributary of Danjiangkou Reservoir as the major source for South-to-North water diversion in China. The resultant risk map shows that risk increases along with flow direction. Risk management in the river basin should give priority attention to risk sources of tailing ponds upstream and risk receptor of the water body. A relative error of 4. 9% partially verified the robustness and stability of the method in uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis.

关 键 词：突发性水污染事故 流域环境风险 相对风险模型 老灌河 

分 类 号：X820.4[环境科学与工程—环境工程]