中国食糖行业需求现状分析及未来发展预测研究  

Analysis On China Sugar Industry and Forecast of Future Development

作　　者：刘心竹[1] 张大红[1] 吴涛[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京林业大学经济管理学院,北京100083 [2]北京林业大学科技处,北京100083

出　　处：《资源开发与市场》2014年第9期1111-1113,1146,共4页Resource Development & Market

摘　　要：食糖是我国国民经济发展必需的战略性物资,也是关心国计民生的重要产品。近年来我国食糖产业快速发展,食糖生产呈现周期性波动,消费则呈刚性快速增长趋势,食糖价格处于高位,整个市场出现供不应求的局面,需要依靠进口来弥补供求缺口。为了深刻研究我国食糖市场,从影响食糖消费因素的角度出发,分析我国食糖行业的需求情况和在供需缺口逐步扩大的情况下我国食糖进出口贸易的现状,通过构建计量经济模型对短期内我国食糖的消费量进行预测,探讨我国食糖消费量与贸易量未来发展趋势,提出相应的对策和建议。Sugar was not only the necessary strategic material for the development of Chinese economy, but also the important product that concerned about the national economy and people＇s livelihood. In recent years, Chinese sugar industry developed rapidly, sugar production fluctuated periodically, sugar consumption grew rapidly, sugar price kept high level, and the sugar market appeared shortage situation and needed to import sugar to make up the demand and supply gap. In order to study the Chinese sugar market profoundly, this paper firstly analyzed the supply situation of the sugar industry from the factors affecting the sugar production, and analyzed the demand situation from the factors affecting consumer demand for sugar and the factors affecting sugar prices, and then analyzed the sugar import and export trade situation under the circumstances that supply and demand gap expands gradually, and then forecasted Chinese sugar supply and consumption in the short term by constructing econometric model, finally analyzed the sugar industry＇s future development trends, and put forward the targeted countermeasures and suggestions to promote Chinese sugar industry develop healthily and stably.

关 键 词：食糖 需求 计量 预测 

分 类 号：F224.12[经济管理—国民经济]