农村转移劳动力价格趋同对国民经济的冲击效应  

Impacting Effects of the Price Convergence of Rural Labor to National Economy

作　　者：杜建军[1] 刘博敏[2] 

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学马克思主义研究院,200433 [2]上海财经大学公共经济与管理学院,200433

出　　处：《上海经济研究》2014年第7期42-51,共10页Shanghai Journal of Economics

基　　金：2012年国家自然科学基金青年项目:(71203129)

摘　　要：近年来,由于农村转移劳动力价格持续快速增长,农村转移劳动力价格出现了动态趋同于城镇劳动力价格的趋势,这将对中国国民经济产生巨大的冲击效应。本文运用系统动力学模型动态模拟表明:农村转移劳动力价格与城镇劳动力价格趋同对GDP、投资、出口和净出口有负面影响,农村转移劳动力价格趋同对消费和进口有正面影响。因此,我们应该未雨绸缪,采取措施积极应对农村转移劳动力价格的上升。Due to the transfer of rural labor force price continued rapid growth in recent years, the transfer of rural labor force price is a dynamic convergence in the trend of urban labor price, this will have huge impact effect on China＇s national economy. This paper using SD Model of the dynamic simulation analysis concludes ： the transfers of rural labor force price growth will have a negative effect on GDP, investment, exports and net exports; The transfer of rural labor force price growth has a positive effect on consumption and import. Therefore, we should take measures to actively respond to the price rise of the transfer of rural labor force.

关 键 词：农村转移劳动力 价格趋同 国民经济冲击效应 

分 类 号：F124.8[经济管理—世界经济]