基于欧氏贴近度的钻井井控风险定量评价方法研究  

Study on Quantitative Risk Assessment Method of Drilling Well Control Based on Euclid Approach Degree

作　　者：金业权[1] 胡满[1] 吴谦[1] 纪永强[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(华东),青岛266580

出　　处：《科学技术与工程》2014年第22期176-179,188,共5页Science Technology and Engineering

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项基金(10CX04035A)资助

摘　　要：加强钻井井控风险评价是安全钻井的重要工作之一,而井控风险定量评价又是井控事故预防和消减的基础。针对钻井井控风险的特点,建立全面合理的钻井井控风险评价指标体系。在模糊物元分析的基础上,结合欧氏贴近度的概念,提出了基于欧氏贴近度的钻井井控风险评价模型,该模型采用定性与定量相结合的层次分析法确定各评价指标的权重。应用该模型对实例井数据计算分析,确定了其风险等级,所得结果与现场基本一致。研究表明该井控风险评价模型合理、可行,可以用于现场对单井进行钻井井控风险评价。Strengthening risk assessment of drilling well control is one of the important works of safe drilling,what＇ s more,the quantitative risk assessment is the basis for the precaution and reduction of blowout runaway accidents.An index system of well control risk incentives is built according to the characteristics of drilling well control risk.Based on the fuzzy matter element analysis and the combination of the concept of Euclid approach degree,a new model for quantitative risk assessment of drilling well control was suggested.This model adopts AHP,which is combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis,to caculate the weight of evaluation indexes.Also,this model is applied to actual examples,the calculation and analysis determine the risk level of the well,the results are basically consistent with the field.Studies show that the well risk assessment model has a centain degree of accuracy and practicality,it can be used to assess well control risk of single well at the scene.

关 键 词：井控风险 风险诱因 欧氏贴近度 模糊综合评价 层次分析法 

分 类 号：TE209[石油与天然气工程—油气井工程]