时变Copula模型及其在峰量分析中的应用  

Time-varying Copula model and its application in joint analysis of flood peak and volume

作　　者：尹耀锋 邹朝望 黎南关 

机构地区：[1]湖北省水利水电规划勘测设计院,湖北武汉430064

出　　处：《人民长江》2014年第16期98-101,108,共5页Yangtze River

基　　金：水利部科技推广项目(TG1316);湖北省水利重点科研课题(HBSLKY201403)

摘　　要：为了建立合理可靠的随机水文模型,通过利用一个类似ARMA(1,q)的过程,描述了Copula函数相关参数的时变变化过程,构造了一种时变Copula模型,并探讨该模型在峰量联合分析中的适用性。实例应用表明,该模型对洪峰和洪量之间相关性刻画与静态Copula模型相当,能很好地保持洪峰和洪量实测系列的统计特征,适用性较好,可为水文水资源随机模拟提供一种新途径。In order to establish a reasonable and reliable stochastic hydrologic model, the time-varying process of correlative parameters of Copula was described by using a process similar to ARMA（1,q）. The time-varying Copula model was established and the varying process of its parameters was deduced. The feasibility of time-varying Copula model in joint analysis of flood peak and volume was discussed. The example shows that the relativity between peak flood and its volume described by time-var-ying Copula model is close to that by static Copula model, which can keep the statistical features of measured flood peak and vol-ume series. The model is suitable for stochastic hydrological simulation.

关 键 词：随机模拟 峰量分析 时变Copula模型 静态Copula模型 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]