基于灰色残差模型的大冶湖流域面源污染变化趋势预测  

Daye Lake Watershed Non-point Source Pollution Trend Prediction Based on Grey Residual Model

作　　者：宋梦婷 李晔[1] 李柏林[1] 章文琴[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学资源与环境工程学院,湖北武汉430070

出　　处：《节水灌溉》2014年第8期53-55,59,共4页Water Saving Irrigation

基　　金：武汉理工大学自主创新研究基金项目(2013-ZY-074);武汉理工大学自助创新基金项目(2013-Ⅳ-081)

摘　　要：大冶湖流域污染严重,其中面源污染占很大比例。根据大冶湖流域2005-2009年的农村人口、城镇人口和畜禽养殖量统计数据,基于灰色残差理论建立了大冶湖流域面源污染预测模型,预测出2010-2013年流域内农村人口、城镇人口和畜禽养殖量,根据预测结果计算出该流域农村生活污水、城镇生活污水和畜禽养殖废水中COD、NH3-N、TN、TP入湖量,得到大冶湖流域的面源污染变化趋势,研究结果可为大冶湖流域水污染防治提供技术支持和理论依据。The water pollution in Daye lake basin is serious and the non-point source pollution accounts for a large proportion. Ac- cording to the rural population, urban population and livestock farming quantity statistics of the Daye lake basin from 2005 to 2009, this paper established Daye lake watershed non-point source pollution prediction model based on the theory of grey residuals, then forecasted the amount of COD, NHs --N, TN and TP into the lake from Rural domestic sewage, urban sewage and wastewater from livestock and poultry farming, finally, got the change trend of the non-point source pollution in Daye lake basin. The research results can provide technical support and theoretical basis for the prevention and control of Daye lake basin water pollution.

关 键 词：大冶湖流域 灰色模型 残差修正 面源污染 预测 

分 类 号：X703.1[环境科学与工程—环境工程]