电力系统运行风险评估系统的设计与实现  

The Design and Implementation of Power System Operational Risk Assessment System

作　　者：夏涛[1] 周统刚 张兴[2] 王勇[3] 刘国静[3] 

机构地区：[1]国网重庆市电力公司,重庆400014 [2]国网电科院,北京102200 [3]山东大学,山东济南250061

出　　处：《国网技术学院学报》2014年第3期1-6,21,共7页Journal of State Grid Technology College

摘　　要：本文以电力系统运行风险评估系统的设计与实现为主线,介绍了系统框架和功能模块,并重点阐述了系统实现的关键技术。该系统依据对临界越限进行分析和评价的电力系统运行风险指标集,利用非序贯蒙特卡洛模拟技术定量分析并得到综合计及设备失效概率和后果的风险指标,通过对各种控制措施实施后的风险指标的变化,辅助系统运行人员决策。本系统能够从系统层面对给定运行方式下的电网风险水平进行多维度量化评估,具有重要的工程应用价值。Following the line of the design and implementation of power system operational risk evaluation system, the author introduces the framework and functional module of the system and focuses on key technology of the implementation. This system aims at aiding decision making on the basis of operation risk index over the critical limit violation, non-sequential Monte Carlo simulation in the index about probable consequence of equipment failure. The study of the influence of control schemes on the risk index may help system operators making decisions. This system can evaluate the power system operation risk at a given operation mode from multiple dimensions both in theory as well as in practical application.

关 键 词：电力系统 风险评估 运行条件 非序贯蒙特卡洛模 

分 类 号：TM732[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]