城市道路交通安全风险分类动态评价技术  

Dynamic Evaluation Technology about Classification of Urban Road Traffic Safety Risks

作　　者：赵学刚[1] 

机构地区：[1]山西警官高等专科学校交通管理系,山西太原030021

出　　处：《中北大学学报（自然科学版）》2014年第4期419-426,共8页Journal of North University of China(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：山西省自然科学基金资助项目(2011011002-1);山西省教育科学"十二五"规划立项课题(GH-12121)

摘　　要：针对城市道路交通系统交通安全风险耦合及动态变化的复杂性,基于城市道路交通安全风险控制系统观点,提出了分类型的城市道路交通系统监测期交通安全综合风险实时评价的方法及技术.应用城市道路交通安全风险控制系统研究成果,提出系统风险源的新型分类方法.在此基础上,结合风险监测期、城市分类标准的确定,应用风险指数法、置信区间法等方法对不同类型风险源作用进行定性、定量分析,构建监测期敏感风险源监测指标体系及分类型城市的系统动态风险源结构,建立敏感风险源动态风险方程,提出了基于最小欧氏距离判断法的新型交通安全综合风险评价方法.研究表明:应用该技术可以实现监测期内不同类型城市的道路交通安全风险控制系统实时风险等级的比较评价,及其敏感风险源作用的定量评价.该技术可以直接应用于目前公安交通安全管理部门的辖区城市道路交通安全风险评价月公告工作中.According to the complexity of safety risk coupling and dynamic changes in urban road traffic sys- tem, and the risk control system of urban road traffic safety, the real-time evaluating method and technology about the road traffic system of comprehensive traffic safety risk for different types of cities during the moni- toring period were put forward. By applying the research outcomes of risk control system in urban traffic sys- tem, a new classification of risk sources was proposed. On the basis of the above, along with the theories of risk monitoring period and the determination of the city classification standard, different types of risk source functions were analyzed qualitatively and quantitatively with methods such as risk index method, confidence interval method and so on, and a new evaluation method about the comprehensive risk of traffic safety was proposed based on the minimum Euclidean distance judging method. At the same time, index system of monitoring sensitive risk sources during the monitoring period and the structure of dynamic risk sources for different types of cities were established and the dynamic risk equation about sensitive risk sources was set up. This research shows that by applying this technology, the comparative evaluation on the real-time risk grade in traffic safety risk-controlling system for different types of cities during monitoring period and the quantitative evaluation on the functions of the sensitive risk sources can be realized. And the technology can be directly applied in the month announcement about the evaluation of the traffic safety risk for area of urban roads of current public security traffic safety administration.

关 键 词：城市道路 交通安全风险 监测指标体系 动态风险源结构 

分 类 号：X951[环境科学与工程—安全科学]